IT is a rather backhanded tribute to the political genius of Sarawak Chief Minister Tan Sri Abdul Taib Mahmud that in the twilight of his nearly three decades in power, he still runs the state without facing any personal need or political pressure to anoint a clear successor.

Given his advancing age and health scare a few years ago, and his iron grip and towering political presence in the state, the question of his successor is a pressing, if largely unspoken, matter in Sarawak.

In the immediate term, Taib's Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) will unquestionably return him unopposed as party president for another term, together with his key party officials, at the upcoming party convention. He will thus lead both his party and Sarawak Barisan Nasional into another state election, expected within a year.

Barring the fast receding possibility of an electoral upset, Taib looks set to remain at the state's helm for another two to three years at least. The question then is what follows.

Taib had for many years publicly said he was grooming three leaders to take his place. Two of them -- Datuk Seri Adenan Satem and Datuk Seri Effendi Norwawi -- are no longer active politically, although the former remains a state assemblyman and then a federal senator.

The lone holdout among the trio has always been the least fancied, even if he is the most senior in the party: deputy president Datuk Amar Abang Johari Tun Openg.

There is unfortunately no established tradition of the PBB deputy president automatically moving up to fill a vacant party presidency. In the event of an unexpected vacancy at the very top, another deputy president, Tan Sri Alfred Jabu, could conceivably be tapped to become chief minister by virtue of his government seniority as deputy chief minister, and therefore concurrently become the new PBB president.

Abang Johari's current position as the lone holdout of three possible successors comes about by default, rather than any clear endorsement from Taib. If anything, Taib has all along been rather ambivalent about Abang Johari succeeding him.

This was evident from Abang Johari having gone from the relatively high-profile ministerial portfolio of industrial development to tourism and now to housing, hardly the career trajectory of someone being groomed to become chief minister.

In spite of the apparent snub, Abang Johari has stoically performed his duties as the loyal deputy and has made the most of the ministerial assignments given him, building up a solid reputation as an effective and competent performer.

There are now tantalising glimmers that all the years of stolid and unobtrusive diligence may finally be paying off for Abang Johari.

The first public signal came with his being bestowed with the prestigious state title of "Datuk Amar" last year. This week came revelations by Taib that Abang Johari is slated for a beefed-up state ministry in a state cabinet reshuffle to be announced soon.

Abang Johari has always been tagged as the unlikely successor by local pundits because he is Malay and not Melanau, like Taib. His coming in from the cold will not have come a moment too soon in the eyes of the Sarawak Malay community, perhaps the bedrock of unquestioning political support in PBB and Sarawak BN.

Sarawak Malays will view Abang Johari's appointment as the state's first Malay chief minister as long overdue. Of aristocratic bearing and impeccable pedigree as a son of the first Malaysian Sarawak governor, Abang Johari's grassroots popularity nevertheless cuts across the state's multiplicity of ethnicities.

Moreover, the political seniority of Abang Johari makes him an acceptable and credible leader among the component parties of the state BN. He is also widely seen as enjoying favour with the powers-that-be in Putrajaya.

The post-Taib political landscape in Sarawak will bring uncommon challenges, owing largely to the political longevity of Taib himself. While Abang Johari hardly has an inspiring abundance of charisma, he will assuredly be a very safe pair of hands at the state's helm during a time of possible turbulence as the state settles into a political transition last seen in 1981.

Taib no longer has the luxury of time to hand-pick and groom a new successor. If that realisation has finally dawned on him, a more explicit easing-in of Abang Johari as his undisputed successor will prevent much ensuing political intrigue and may be a fitting crowning glory -- and perhaps the best political legacy Taib can bequeath to a state he has ruled over such a remarkably long stretch.

bimpeabc@tm.net.my