KUALA LUMPUR: CGS International Research expects Yinson Holdings Bhd's redeemable convertible preference shares (RCPS) issue to be finalised before the end of 2024.
The firm said the funds raised are likely to be utilised to expand the floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) portfolio by acquiring two to three additional assets.
It said Yinson is keen on growth and intends to leverage the ongoing strength in project internal rates of return (IRRs) within the global FPSO build-operate-lease market.
Previously, reports indicated that Yinson was considering issuing between US$1 billion and US$1.5 billion in RCPS at its FPSO subsidiary level to various global investors.
"We believe that Yinson is either already negotiating directly with certain oil and gas companies or will participate in future bidding exercises, as two of its three project execution teams are prepared to manage new projects.
"Potential downside risks include unexpected delays in project execution or first oil estimates, as well as RCPS terms that may not be favourable to Yinson's shareholders," the firm added.
CGS International said Yinson's second quarter ended July 31, 2024 (2QFY25) was RM135 million, reflecting a 21 per cent decrease quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) due to lower revenue and profits from engineering, procurement, construction, installation and commissioning (EPCIC) activities.
The decline was attributed to a slower pace of completion for the FPSO Atlanta and FPSO Agogo projects, although the completion rate for the FPSO MQ accelerated.
"Another reason for the QoQ decline in core net profit was higher interest expense, as Yinson drew down more project financing for the FPSO MQ and FPSO Agogo projects.
"The group also upsized the debt secured against the cashflows of FPSO Anna Nery in May 2024 in order to recoup its equity capital invested in the asset," it said.
Yinson had indicated at an analyst briefing that first oil for the FPSO MQ was expected in Oct 2024, three to four months earlier than CGS International's estimate.
For the FPSO Atlanta, first oil is anticipated in Dec 2024, two to three months later than projected, and for the FPSO Agogo, it is expected in December 2025.
CGS International said the first oil milestone will boost operating cashflows because daily charter hire is only paid to Yinson when the assets are working, and this may help ease investors' concerns over Yinson's high net gearing.
"Over the course of constructing these assets in the past two to three years, Yinson has been booking substantial engineering, procurement, construction, installation, and commissioning revenues and profits on the profit and loss. However, these are non-cash in nature.
"Instead, Yinson's debt has ballooned, and it has been incurring high debt financing costs, as the projects' capex costs have been largely funded by debt.
Therefore, achieving first oil for the FPSO MQ and FPSO Atlanta could be key rerating catalysts," it noted.