KUALA LUMPUR: Capital A Bhd's system-wide revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), which measures the total distance traveled by paying passengers, are projected to increase by 20 per cent to about 70 billion in 2024, according to Kenanga Research.
This follows an estimated recovery to 58 billion RPK in FY23, reflecting a rebound of 24 billion from prior levels.
Kenanga said that Capital A is seeing traction in passenger throughput recovery, with plans to reactivate 187 aircraft. Of these, 161 are expected to be operational, representing 74 per cent of its pre-Covid capacity.
The firm said in a note that the recovery will be driven by high travel demand during peak seasons and the new visa-free travel arrangement between China and Malaysia effective December 1, 2023.
While Capital A's digital segment is expected to remain loss-making, Kenanga added that the Airasia Super App is expected to grow, underpinned by the continued resurgence of travel demand from the reopening of borders and tactical campaigns, alongside anticipated growth from airasia Food, Ride, and Xpress.
Capital A's financial performance for the first nine months of the financial year 2024 (FY24) exceeded expectations, with a core net profit of RM1.09 billion, driven by forex gains of RM2.2 billion and higher-than-anticipated air travel yields. This compares to Kenanga's full-year net loss forecast of RM398 million and a consensus net profit estimate of RM459 million.
For FY24, Kenanga now forecasts a profit of RM1.14 billion for Capital A, compared to a previously projected loss. The firm has also raised its FY25 earnings forecast by 73 per cent.
Kenanga underscored Capital A's strategic moves, including shareholder approval for the disposal of its aviation business at an extraordinary general meeting in October.
The disposal is expected to be completed by January 2025, subject to regulatory approvals, paving the way for the company to exit its Practice Note 17 (PN17) status by the first quarter of 2025.
Capital A has released its PN17 regularisation plan and is preparing to submit the circular to Bursa Malaysia.
The group aims to complete the aviation business disposal by January 2025 and aims to exit the PN17 status by the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25).
Meanwhile, Kenanga noted that the airline's logistics arm, Teleport, is expected to continue expanding throughout 2024 as it adds new international routes and delivery hubs.
Kenanga also noted that BigPay's recent launch of a digital lending platform introduces new loan products to its financial services portfolio.
As such, Kenanga said it continues to favour Capital A for being a beneficiary of the recovery in air travel post-pandemic, its growing digital business leveraging the strong AirAsia brand and its existing client base, and its dynamic, visionary leadership, which should help steer the company out of its current financial difficulties.
However, the firm remains mindful of Capital A's continued status under PN17 and has maintained its "Market Perform" recommendation on the stock.
Moving forward, the firm noted that risks to its recommendation include a stronger recovery in air travel, lower jet fuel prices, an earlier-than-expected uplift from the PN17 status, and the monetisation of its digital assets.