KUALA LUMPUR: The tight supply of crude palm oil (CPO) inventory is expected to ease in the coming months, which would lead to a price correction once inventory levels rebound.
Public Investment Bank Bhd (PublicInvest Research) said in a note that CPO inventory extended its decline to 1.84 million tonnes in November after seeing a sharp pullback in exports despite production being down for a third straight month.
However, it was slightly higher than the market estimates of 1.8 million tonnes.
"We expect the tight supply situation to ease in the coming months; thus, the current CPO price momentum may not be sustainable, and a price correction would be inevitable once the inventory level rebounds.
"At the point of writing, CPO futures tumbled RM163 to RM4,957 per tonne," it said.
Following a sharp gain in the previous month, CPO exports retraced 14.7 per cent month-on-month to 1.48 million tonnes, mainly dragged by China, the European Union, India, and the Middle East, partially offset by strong demand from the US.
"We attributed the weaker demand to two notable factors, namely, excessively high selling prices and solidification of palm oil during winter, which makes it difficult for storage and consumption."
It added that Indonesia is boosting its mandatory blending rate of biodiesel with regular diesel fuel to 40 per cent beginning Jan 1, 2025, with a goal to reach 60 per cent biodiesel content within this decade.
Since mid-2015, the biodiesel mandate has resulted in increasing biodiesel consumption when the government started subsidising its production using the proceeds from the palm oil export levy.
"That support means that blended diesel costs only 43 cents/litre at petrol stations, half the price of conventional diesel. However, we think that this mechanism may not be sustainable for long, as the palm fund management agency has estimated that the 40 per cent mandate would require US$3 billion in subsidies next year, while the excise levy is estimated to be around US$1.3 billion.
"The agency's US$2 billion reserves should be sufficient to cover the shortfall in 2025, but either higher levies on palm oil exports or lower fuel subsidies would be needed in the subsequent years, even without taking further blend rate rises into account," said the firm.
PublicInvest Research maintained its 'Neutral" call on the plantation sector.