KUALA LUMPUR: MIDF Research expects a preliminary full recovery in Malaysia's passenger traffic next year with a growth of 4.0 per cent compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
The firm said Malaysian Aviation Commission (Mavcom) projects passenger traffic for 2024 to range between 95.4 million and 97.6 million, slightly below its estimate of 98.7 million.
"We anticipate this month's passenger traffic to range between 8.5 million and 10 million, supported by the year-end holiday season, bringing the full-year figure to between 93.6 million and 95.1 million, which we still deem to be in line with expectations.
"Over the long term, Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) stated that they are actively pursuing over 25 new airlines, and they are expected to commence operations within the next two years.
"British Airways' commencement has been delayed to April 2025 due to challenges with aircraft availability," it said in a note.
MIDF Research said the total passenger traffic in November achieved an 89 per cent recovery in November with domestic volume at 83 per cent and international at 94 per cent.
It added that demand remained robust despite seat capacity recovering to only 83 per cent, as reflected by the strong load factor of 79 per cent, which is 5.4 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels.
The firm said the international sector's recovery has consistently outpaced the domestic sector over the past year.
"Thirteen new airlines launched services to Malaysia, exceeding MAHB's annual target of 12. Notably, eight out of these 13 are Chinese airlines, with passenger traffic from China fully recovering from July 2024 onwards, driven by the restoration of network connectivity.
"That said, the recovery was also bolstered by existing airlines, which have launched 52 new services as of September."
MIDF Research said MAHB continues to report new services departing from Malaysia's major international airports each month, along with increased flight frequencies, reflecting a positive trend.