KUALA LUMPUR: Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election may heighten the currency market volatility in the immediate future, setting Asian central banks up for a wild ride, economists said.
Bank Negara Malaysia, meanwhile, cautioned that the outcome of the US presidential election may increase short-term volatility for the ringgit.
But the central bank said Malaysia's favourable economic prospects and domestic structural reforms, complemented by ongoing initiatives to encourage flows, will continue to provide enduring support to the ringgit.
Bank Negara, in its monetary policy statement announcing the status quo of its overnight policy rate at 3.00 per cent on Tuesday, also said the narrowing interest rate gap between Malaysia and advanced economies is favourable for the ringgit.
The ringgit, Southeast Asia's best performing currency this year, fell 1.3 per cent to its lowest since mid-August ahead of an interest rate decision.
As at 12 noon, it dropped to 4.3980 against the US dollar from yesterday's close of 4.3415.
Singapore's dollar and Thailand's baht fell the most among Asian currencies today.
The Singapore dollar tumbled 1.6 per cent to its lowest in three months, set for its worst session since November 2011.
Thailand's baht slumped 1.3 per cent to a two-month low, while the South Korean won also fell as much as 1.5 per cent to its lowest since mid-April.
SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes told Business Times that Trump's victory has unleashed a seismic shift across the global economy. This sets central banks in the region up for a wild ride.
He said slashing interest rates to stimulate growth just got a whole lot harder - some banks may even need to crack open their reserves to keep local currencies from sliding.
"But the real game-changer? A looming 60 per cent tariff on China as part of Trump's aggressive trade agenda," added Innes.
Innes said for Malaysia, the ripple effects of a tariff shock could be monumental. With the country's trade deeply intertwined with China, the ringgit could take a steep fall if Trump follows through.
"If China's economy starts cooling, Malaysia could feel the full brunt. This is not just a blip - it is the potential for a regional shake-up with effects rippling out across Asia. And here's the twist: if other nations hit back with retaliatory tariffs, we are looking at a global trade storm," he added.
He added that central banks across Asia will be left scrambling to navigate the rough waters.
"Much of the fallout hinges on whether Trump moves forward with these tariffs and, equally important, how much stimulus China deploys to drive domestic demand and offset trade impacts.
"In the meantime, I would not be surprised to see US dollar-Chinese yuan edging toward 7.30 and US dollar-ringgit climbing over 4.55," Innes said.
Sharing another perspective, economist Dr Geoffrey Williams said the Trump victory should be positive for the geopolitical issue, because he will take a different and firmer approach.
"This should benefit the ringgit by creating a more stable global economic environment," he added.
Williams said the ringgit has strengthened but is subject to volatility due to international events. Nonetheless Bank Negara can make policy intervention other than changing interest rates to manage that.
"So the economy is in good shape and there is no need to change monetary policy for the foreseeable future. It provides a stable policy environment which is good for attracting foreign direct investment and domestic investment," he added.
On Bank Negara's decision to keep the OPR at three per cent, Williams said it is the expected and right decision.
He noted that headline inflation will be around two per cent for the year, which is at the low end of the official forecasts.
"Economic growth will be around five per cent, at the high end of the forecast, and the financial system is sound," Williams said.