United States President Donald Trump, in his inauguration speech on Capitol Hill on Friday, had a blunt message to the world: “We, assembled here today, are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power. From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land. From this day forward, it’s going to be only America first, America first. Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs, will be made to benefit American workers and American families.”
On economic policy, the message was clear and present — his administration will protect the country’s “borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies, and destroying our jobs”.
Protectionism would lead to great prosperity and strength in the US, he declared, seemingly oblivious of the vagaries of the global economy, especially the giant strides in technology, the new patterns of capital ownership in the world and the shift of economic power from almost two centuries of US hegemony to Asia.
Blustering nationalist and isolationist rhetoric on the cornucopia of policy issues apart, what are the implications for the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) countries, including Malaysia, the oil-producing Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Turkey, Iran, the conflict countries of Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan, and the Israeli-Palestinian problem? Then, there is the scourge of so-called extremist Islamist terrorism, which Trump vowed to eradicate — the only direct reference to the Muslim world in his speech.
Trump comes across as the most Islamophobic president in recent US history, given his rhetoric during his presidential campaign. Yet, he seems to have already gone back on his promise to ban Muslims from America. For someone who prides himself in the art of the deal, he missed a main chance. What a gesture of intent and reconciliation it would have been, if the inauguration had included a Muslim faith representative, to deliver an invocation at his inauguration. There were the usual disparate Christian faith leaders led by Cardinal Timothy Dolan, the (Catholic) Archbishop of New York, together with Rabbi Marvin Hier, dean of the Simon Wiesenthal Center. At least, Barack Obama invited Reverend Dr Samuel Rodriguez, president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, to deliver an invocation at his second inauguration in 2013. Obama had even hosted an Iftar Party at the White House during Ramadan.
For Kuala Lumpur, like for many Asia-Pacific Rim countries, it is a question of wait-and-see. The Trans-Pacific Partnership is certain to be repealed. Trump has even dismissed any renegotiation of terms. But, as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak recently maintained, Malaysia will continue to forge bilateral relations with the US, while at the same time strengthening ties with China and Japan. Already, Kuala Lumpur and Beijing have signed a US$34 billion trade deal, with Chinese investment in Malaysia set to increase markedly.
The other impact on Malaysia will be the conduct of Trump’s economic and financial policy, especially how it affects the ringgit, which, together with the Indonesian rupiah, have been the two most volatile Asean currencies against the US dollar. It is no secret that Trump is highly critical of Federal Reserve Board chair Janet Yellen, who sets US interest rates, which, in turn, impacts the global financial system and currencies. Yellen warned members of congress that as they consider Trump’s US$1 trillion pledge to spend on infrastructure, they should keep an eye on the national debt.
The two most entrenched issues that bode badly for OIC countries are the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran nuclear deal. Trump has expressed support for reactionary Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu and strongly attacked Obama’s final gesture at the United Nations Security Council for refusing to veto a resolution condemning the building of illegal Jewish settlements on Palestinian land.
Whether Trump’s Middle East policy leads to another Palestinian intifada will depend on how the two most important officials dealing with defence and intelligence issues compromise and sort out their personal contradictions. They could not be more diametrically different.
As national security adviser to Trump, retired Lieutenant-General Michael Flynn is a maverick and a well-documented hardline Islamophobe and anti-Semite, who called Islam a “cancer” and tweeted that “Fear of Muslims is RATIONAL”.
On the other hand, retired Marine General James N. Mattis, who goes under the sobriquet “Mad Dog”, as secretary of defence is a general’s general, with a huge reputation for a measured, if not intellectual, approach to issues, including “political Islam”. He encourages discourse in tackling what he considers the major security issue facing the US.
Let’s hope sanity prevails in relation with Teheran. Obama had strongly urged Trump not to repeal the Iran nuclear deal, although
Netanyahu is itching to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, which Israel cannot do on its own because it would have to rely on the participation of long-range US war planes to carry out such a mission. The fallout would be catastrophic for the region and the US.
It would be interesting to see if US relations with Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan improve. They were at a nadir with Obama, ostensibly because of the US’s reluctance to extradite Fethullah Gulen, the religious leader Ankara blames for the attempted military coup last July.
Ultimately, the eyes of the world will be on how Trump tackles the civil war in Syria and whether the US will finally team up with President Vladimir Putin of Russia and Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad to defeat both the Syrian opposition and the Islamic State in one swoop, and get the Gulf states to pay to boot. After all, he is the King of the Deal!
Mushtak Parker is an independent
London-based economist and writer