KUALA LUMPUR: With the nation's current Covid-19 infectivity rate (R-naught) of 0.87, it is possible for the nation's positive cases which have been hovering below 2,000 new infections daily, to drop to about 500 cases by May.
Health Minister Datuk Seri Dr Adham Baba said based on the latest data up to March 14, modelling of cases reported nationwide showed a decline in the R-naught from 0.9 to 0.87 within the past two weeks.
He said the lower R-naught was thanks to the compliance of the people to the Covid-19 Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) set by the government.
He urged the rakyat not to let their guard down to curb the Covid-19 infection.
"If this downtrend can be maintained and the people continue to adhere to the SOP, it is forecasted that the cases would then be in the range of 500 cases a day.
"However, if there are breaches to the SOP, the R-naught could possibly rise to above 1.0 and the same goes to the number of new infections daily.
"I plead to everyone to continue observing the SOP and practice the new norms so that we can break the Covid-19 infection chain in the country," said Dr Adham today.
He said this during a weekly virtual press conference on the NIP. Also present was Science, Technology and Innovation Minister and NIP coordinating minister Khairy Jamaluddin.
In February, Health director-general Tan Sri Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah had said, with the enforcement of the MCO, cases could drop below 1,000 in April and down to double digits by the end of May.
Dr Adham said that up to March 14, the R-naught at all states was below 1.0 except for Terengganu and Penang but were showing positive signs of a decline.
He added that 17 districts have turned into green zones in Peninsular Malaysia based on the Covid-19 distribution cases on Feb 28 and March 14.
There were six such districts – in Kedah (two), Terengganu (one), Perak (one) and Pahang (two) on Feb 18. Yesterday, 11 districts – four in Kedah, two each in Perak and Pahang and one each in Kelantan, Terengganu and Negri Sembilan – turned green.