KUALA LUMPUR: There has been no shortage of theories behind the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, as well as where the airplane could have ended up.
However, for Datuk Mohd Rafique Ramli Ariffin, there is no doubt in his mind that the aircraft, which disappeared on March 8, 2014, with 239 people on board, is somewhere beneath the forbidding waves of the Indian Ocean.
On March 24, 2014, then prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak announced that data from the Inmarsat satellite had indicated that flight MH370 ended its journey in the Southern Indian Ocean.
However, initial search of the ocean turned up nothing. In 2018, a second search was authorised on a "no-find, no-fee" basis.
With the agreement of the government, two Malaysian experts were despatched to join the 100 crew members of the Seabed Constructor, operated by British-owned hydrographic survey company Ocean Infinity, to scour the Indian Ocean along what is known as the "seventh arc".
Rafique would join in the search later as the third Malaysian crew member. He was handpicked to be among the handful of experts in the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Annex 13 Safety Investigation Operations Committee because of his vast knowledge in aviation.
He was then part of the Police Air Wing, which he retired as a commander. Rafique was aboard the Seabed Constructor for six weeks and recounted his experience in the search, speaking about several theories that have since been put forth as a result of the absence of the primary piece of evidence — the aircraft itself.
SELECTIVE DATA INTERPRETATION
Among the most popular theories widely discussed was a " last flight" allegedly planned by pilot Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah.
This speculation arose after investigators reportedly retrieved data from Zaharie's flight simulator showing a similar flight path taken by MH370.
Rafique revealed that data from Zaharie's personal flight simulator actually contained about 1,600 "waypoints" or airways to fly to a specific location.
"It (the simulator) was only a Microsoft 10 simulator that you can buy off the market, but he built it in such a way to allow touch screen functions as if it's an actual cockpit.
"For amateurs, it might look advanced, but for those who are really into simulators, it's just normal," he said, adding that the simulators had been dismantled when it was seized a couple of days after the incident.
However, he pointed out that only seven of the waypoints signified a route to the Indian Ocean.
"In his computer, they were able to extract the history and there were over 1,600 waypoints, but they just singled out the seven waypoints. It could be because he likes to fly here and there."
Rafique also shared that it was standard operating procedure for airlines to have at least two personnel in a cockpit.
"This was following the 9/11 incident. Two personnel are required to be in the cockpit at all times, meaning if one of the pilots needs to use the restroom, a crew member would have to be in the cockpit," he explained.
In a report yesterday, the New Straits Times had quoted MH370 lead criminal investigator Datuk Mohd Khalil Kader Mohd as saying that forensic investigations had indicated the similarity between the data from Zaharie's flight simulator and the plane's flight path was irrelevant.
"We checked his background. We questioned his friends, none of whom gave negative (statements). It meant that he was a very friendly, humble and jovial family man. That was what we recorded," he said.
Khalil also said they scrutinised numerous closed-circuit television (CCTV) recordings of Zaharie's movements at the airport and workplace, besides engaging psychologists and even examined the books he read.
In 2017, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) published the data extracted from Zaharie's flight simulator.
The details were contained in a 440-page final report on the unsuccessful search for MH370.
The report said six weeks before the incident, the pilot-in-command had used his simulator to fly a route, initially similar to part of the route flown by MH370 down the Straits of Malacca, with a left-hand turn and track into the southern Indian Ocean.
MANGOSTEEN AND BATTERIES
Another sensational hypothesis flying around is that the flight was a "flying bomb" as it was carrying 4.5 tonnes of mangosteen and 221kg of lithium-ion batteries, which were said to be a fire hazard when their fluids mixed together.
Rafique said the investigators, along with Khalil, even went to Muar, Johor, and Beijing, China, to meet the exporters and importers, respectively.
In fact, they had also gone to Penang to check on the lithium-ion batteries and they saw how both mangosteens and batteries were packaged.
"We tested the batteries and mangosteens to see if it was flammable should there be any leakage, but the possibility of that happening was none," said Rafique, adding that their investigation showed that the batteries were securely packed at the airport according to international standard.
However, he said following the incident, commercial airlines were not allowed to carry lithium-ion batteries in their cargo.
"That's the point of Annex 13. We don't want to blame anyone for what happened, but we want to avoid a similar incident from recurring," he said.
AIR TURNBACK
Rafique revealed that within a month of MH370's disappearance, there were about 18 air turnbacks, adding that it was a common scenario due to technical problems.
However, MH370 was the only one operating without transponder signals when it made the turnback to Malaysia.
"The flight was around (Waypoint) Igari, just near KLIA, and if they opted to go to an alternate airport, it could be further so they might as well come back to their home base, which was KLIA.
"It is probable that they had an issue, so they turned back, but the issue was that MH370 didn't make it to homebase, and instead, went to Penang before going missing," he said.
He added that it was not likely that MH370 was flying as low as 5,000 feet off the ground as they would be using more fuel.
"If you remember, the plane was reported to climb and descend, and again climb and descend to 5,000 feet. And even the airspeed was shared (with everyone).
"But all those are unreliable because our defence radar (from the military) doesn't focus on that (height and airspeed). It's more on detecting objects (if there are any unknown aircraft in our airspace).
"To see all that (height and airspeed), we have to depend on the air traffic controller's radar," he said.
For us to find the definite truth, said Rafique, Malaysia needed to analyse the plane's black box and flight data recorder.
"The black box will give us the true story and based on the data it records, we can tell if there were any malfunctions. And through the flight recorder, we can listen to what transpired in the cockpit," he said.
FINAL RESTING PLACE
Besides lending his years of aviation experience, Rafique was also tasked to be on board the Seabed Constructor as the investigator in-charge if the missing plane was ever found.
He boarded the vessel — which was more than one football field long — with a container that he would be using to keep the black boxes, should they be found.
"They were confident that it is highly likely that we would find MH370 near the Broken Ridge," he added.
Initial underwater searches for the plane, which was subsequently suspended indefinitely in the Indian Ocean in January 2017, had covered 120,000 sq km and cost about RM605 million.
Describing the part of the ocean that was believed to be the final resting place of MH370, Rafique said the waters that they were searching on were so deep that sunlight could penetrate only a bit below the surface.
"You cannot see anything... it's the Indian Ocean. The water is that dark as it has an average depth of around 4,000m.
"The Broken Ridge also has mountains that could rise as high as 2,000m from the seabed, and the deepest point was over 6,000m. You can't see anything at all," he said.
Rafique said it was truly challenging to locate the aircraft, a Boeing 777-200ER, as it had been flying at 35,000 feet and could glide more than 100 nautical miles when the engines flamed out.
"So we don't know where it truly is. What we have is the last point but we don't know where the true point of impact was," he said, adding that even a large airliner as the Boeing 777 would seem to be "pea-sized" in that huge area.
Rafique said Malaysia had already outlined the standard operating procedures as to what needed to be done when the plane was found, including how to retrieve the bodies of victims.
IT'S IN THE INDIAN OCEAN
Rafique believes that the aircraft's final resting place lies in the Indian Ocean.
He said this was based on various evidence pointing to the conclusion, as well as the discovery of a flaperon in Reunion Island — a French territory near the island of Madagascar — in 2015.
He was also part of the team deployed to inspect the flaperon, which was then sent to Toulouse, France, where it was examined by international investigators.
Najib had in August that same year said experts examining the debris in France had "conclusively confirmed" it was from the aircraft.
Rafique said an inspection of barnacles growing on the flaperon suggested that it had been in the ocean for the corresponding period.
The origin of the barnacles, he added, could be near the plane's final resting place in the Southern Indian Ocean.
"We found more than 30 pieces of debris. The flaperon was confirmed to be from MH370. To me, I still believe that the aircraft is somewhere in the Indian Ocean, near the search area. It's just that we haven't found it yet."