AN analysis about parity in the "comprehensive power" of China and the United States in Asia, as revealed by the Sydney-based Lowy Institute in its newly released "Asia Power Index", is a whistleblower warning about the dawn of a new clash between Beijing and Washington with the latter urging regional countries to make "difficult but necessary choices".
Notwithstanding, the US still topped the ranking scoring 81.6 points, the think-tank analysed that its standing has waned in all but one of the index measures registering the largest fall "in relative power of any Indo-Pacific country" in 2020.
China, with 76.1 points, stood its ground and narrowed America's prior 10-point lead by a half. The index says this closing power disparity suggests that Washington, "far from being the undisputed unipolar power, can more correctly be described as the first among equals in a bipolar IndoPacific".
It singled out the Trump administration's unilateral inclinations to pronounce the US underachievement in Asia. China's major strongholds are economic capability, future resources, economic relationships and diplomatic influence.
It gives an insight into Chinese economic recovery and diplomacy is outperforming American gains vis-à-vis military capability, defence networks, resilience and cultural influence. Washington has long counted on military bases, troop deployment and diplomatic influence to retain its image of a peerless global power.
China thinks the US is rehearsing the same technique against it to set off a new Cold War by taking other countries onboard.
For any kind of Cold War to succeed, US would need to blockade China on economic and diplomatic fronts and engage its "strategic rival" in a military gridlock through regional and global alliances like it did to smash the Soviet Union.
Washington's conviction to isolate China internationally is being eclipsed by the lilies of near-perfect Chinese economic and diplomatic arrangements. An AP report in December last year on the fading US global influence said in the first three years of Trump's presidency, once close partners, France, Egypt, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Mexico, Turkey and Germany, had quietly broken away from Washington.
The trend to divorce the US centric international order for a more balanced approach has accelerated this year with many in France, Germany and others giving equal importance to China. Trump's crassly assertive attitude, vexatious trade war, grievously hardline on defence burden sharing, demolition of international treaties and the baleful "with us or against us" policy have inadvertently pushed US allies into the Chinese orbit.
His everlasting insulting and offending comments towards the US partners stroked a double whammy to American key national security and foreign policy objectives. He cramped the bilateral diplomatic and economic relationship and on the other, his retry attempts added an impetus to China's rise.
His rap sheet of the Covid-19 and compelling attitude as a means to strong-arm allies have altogether played a role in bringing disgrace to the country.
Amid widespread destruction by an insidious disease triggering a furor to US coronavirus response internationally, he got very little confidence from the global public on his handling of world affairs, including from Australia, Japan and South Korea. However, it doesn't mean the US has conceded an edge to China in Asia.
Washington's solid lead over Beijing in key areas such as military capability and defence networks suggests if it gets the economy back on track quickly,the US has a great chance to cement its position by improving economic relations and expanding diplomatic influence. China, at the centre of Asia's rise as a leading global power, won't stand idly by.
Beijing will be privy to the falling trajectory of its standing in the region, which with South Korea and Japan already seeing US as the world's economic power, could weaken its position in Australia and India after it severed ties with both.
It, if not circumvent, would delay engaging in a direct conflict with either of them and try to improve ties through economic relationships and diplomatic influence.
The US is acting exactly in the opposite direction. In his five day trip to Asia, the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo seeks to partner India to "thwart (China) threats, challenge its infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka and Maldives and discuss Chinese activities" in the South China Sea with Indonesia. Support from Asian countries will be a defining moment for the conversion of China-US rivalry into a Cold War.
In a lead-up to this looming great power competition, Beijing has deployed the Belt Road Initiative and renascent economic recovery to inveigle regional nations, while the White House is living off its technological superiority, military wherewithal and defence cooperation to outcompete or "trump" the new American adversary.
The writer is an international commentator and opinion contributor to CGTN and 'The Express Tribune', partner of 'The International New York Times'. He writes on geopolitical issues and regional conflicts