THE resignation of Liz Truss as Britain's prime minister after 44 chaotic days in office exposes the toxic nature of politics in Europe.
The political and economic uncertainties in Europe and in the United States, as well as the unfinished war in Ukraine, will give China some respite from the US administration.
US President Joe Biden himself is fighting for his political life. His political fate will be determined in the Nov 9, 2022 mid-term elections.
Political pundits are betting on the Democrats losing control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives, which can be fatal for the 79-year-old president who is determined to scuttle China.
Win or lose, Biden will leave behind an anti-China crusade legacy that will take years to repair.
Like their counterparts in America, the Europeans are also fighting over rising food and energy prices. Without cheap gas and oil from Russia, many in Europe are likely to suffer from a frigid winter.
The industrial output in Europe is expected to decline without cheap oil and gas.
With Europe and the US in turmoil, China will be off their radar for a while. As the Communist Party Secretary General Xi Jinping heads into a third consecutive term as President, the economic outlook for China is relatively rosy.
However, his zero-Covid policy and the property market bubble are expected to slow China down temporarily.
Xi is doing his best to minimise the impact of economic slowdown. His policy to "override" the US dollar has gained traction in other parts of the world.
For example, sale of oil in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries, is no longer done solely in US dollar.
Major oil producers like Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia accept renminbi and roubles for their oil and gas. European countries have paid Russia in roubles for its gas and oil since it invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
Washington is using the dollar as a weapon to retain global economic and geopolitical pre-eminence. Yet, it condemns Russia for using oil as a weapon in conducting its foreign policy. This is a case of: the kettle calling the pot black!
The political uncertainties in Europe and America give China some breathing space.
Faced with internal problems, the UK, France and Germany, for example, are not likely to send any new naval expeditionary force to the region.
Without military support from Europe, the US can only count on military help from Australia, Japan and South Korea.
The current Labour Party in Australia is facing criticisms from one of its senior leaders former premier, Paul Keating, who has urged Australia to walk away from the AUKUS Security Agreement.
Under AUKUS, the US and UK have agreed to supply Australia with 18 nuclear-powered submarines.
Not only does the AUKUS Agreement violate the Non-Proliferation Treaty that Canberra has subscribed to since 1970, but it has also received objections from friendly regional powers including Indonesia and Malaysia.
Support from European countries is crucial to the US which depends on its allies to take on China.
The US latest National Security Strategy paper published two weeks ago has named China and Russia as existential threats to global security (read US security) that it must challenge for democracy's sake.
While Russia is mentioned in the strategy paper mainly because of its war in Ukraine, the focus of the national strategy under Biden is China.
According to the National Strategy paper, "the Peoples' Republic of China is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, military, and technological power to do it."
The US is determined to stop China in its tracks from becoming a dominant power in the Indo Pacific region and elsewhere that could threaten the US interests.
Washington further accuses Beijing of using economic power to coerce other countries although there is little evidence to suggest such aids as being debt-traps.
Washington seems to view Russia not from the lens of Ukraine, rather from the perspective of the Kremlin's relationship with China. The Russia-China "no limit relationship" has roiled Washington more than the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine.
Washington currently depends on Australia, India, Japan and some allies to confront China for its policies in the South China Sea, East China Sea and Taiwan.
Interestingly, these hotspots are not of vital interest to what Washington is fighting for. Thousands of miles away from Hawaii, Taiwan, which the US has long acknowledged as part of China, for example, is of no vital security interest to America.
America's anti-China policy is no easy sailing in Southeast Asia. Despite high-level visits from Washington to the region to drum up support, there is no blanket support for US policy among the countries in the region except for those with defence treaties with the US.
For example, overtures by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Vice-President Kamala Harris in 2021 were politely rebuffed by Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.
There are reports suggesting that Washington and Manila are forging a closer defense relationship. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr is scheduled to visit Beijing in November by which time we will know which way the wind will blow.
Manila like all other capitals in Southeast Asia is hedging its foreign policy to optimise its outcome. In this regard, while so many things happen on the ground in Manila under the new leadership, it is very unlikely for Marcos Jr to cut military and economic ties with China to please the US.
On the contrary, as Manila strengthens military ties with the US, its strategic ally since 1951, the Philippines will not downgrade its relations with Beijing with whom it shares a maritime border.
It is still too early to come to any conclusion from recent developments considering that China has become the biggest source of FDI in Asia in 2021.
The writer is a keen student of geopolitics