THE historic swap of 24 prisoners on Thursday between Russia and Western nations including the United States and Germany raises questions on possible implications for the war in Ukraine.
US journalist Evan Gershkovich, 32, and former US marine Paul Whelan, 54, were released from Russia, the Turkish government announced, in one of the biggest East-West prisoner swaps since the Cold War.
In return, Russians were also freed, including convicted hitman Vadim Krasikov from a prison in Germany.
Analyst Lukas Aubin said the deal showed Washington and Moscow had kept a line of communication open, like during the Cold War.
"This prisoner exchange shows the United States and Russia have carried on discussions and have long been talking," said the researcher at the French Institute for Strategic and International Affairs (IRIS).
President Vladimir Putin said in December he wanted Moscow and Washington to reach a "solution" to secure the release of Wall Street Journal reporter Gershkovich, but that talks were not straightforward.
Gershkovich was detained in Russia in March 2023 and convicted in July on spying charges in a fast-track trial denounced as a sham by the United States.
According to Russia-focused independent media outlet The Insider, discussions had in fact started in early 2022, before the journalist was arrested.
At the time, the focus was on a possible exchange of Vadim Krasikov for then jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
A German court in 2021 found Krasikov guilty of gunning down a former Chechen separatist commander in broad daylight in a Berlin park two years earlier.
But then "Putin hoped to swap Krasikov for Evan Gershkovich -- an American journalist arrested specifically for the exchange," The Insider wrote on Thursday.
The Kremlin at first believed it only needed to negotiate with the United States, assuming Washington could influence the Europeans, it reported. But as Germany had arrested Krasikov, it became necessary to involve Berlin in the talks.
But the Germans "were only willing to discuss exchanging Krasikov for Navalny", The Insider said.
A deal seemed in the works to include Navalny, but Russia delayed confirming Navalny's inclusion until the last moment, it said.
In February, Russian prison authorities announced the opposition leader had died, sparking outrage in the West.
In April, The Insider said, Germany signalled potential interest in Putin releasing "multiple political prisoners for Krasikov alone".
Germany said Thursday its release of a convicted murderer in the swap was "not an easy decision".
Liana Fix, of the Council on Foreign Relations(CFR), said the exchange showed "the Kremlin's assassins are important to Putin".
It could also, she said, "be an attempt of Russia to demonstrate that one can make deals with Russia in 'good faith', especially ahead of US elections and the discussions about a potential deal under (Donald) Trump" if he returns as president.
"I don't think it is directly and explicitly linked to a peace deal" for Ukraine, she said, however.
"The US and Germany will have made sure that these issues are disconnected, as they adhere to the principle of nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine."
But, she added, "Russia may want to demonstrate goodwill to sweeten the entry into talks, which it will try to conduct on its own terms".
Aubin said he did not think the prisoner swap necessarily paved the way to Ukraine peace talks.
But it did come "at a moment in which Ukraine has in recent weeks opened a diplomatic door with Russia", he said.
Zelensky this week said "the whole world" wanted Russia to take part in peace talks.
"On the Ukrainian side, there is a form of fatigue with the war," Aubin said.
"On the Russian side, there is some bragging that they have the upper hand (on the ground). But one can also imagine that with the war getting bogged down, they might also look for a way out to stop it and get out of it with their head held high," he said.
* The writer is from AFP