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Uncertain future after the fall of Damascus

ON the morning of Dec 8, news broke that Bashar al-Assad had fled Damascus for Russia, leaving the Syrian capital open for opposition force Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to seize control. All eyes are once again on Syria after the lightning-fast coup.

In 11 days, HTS pushed hard from its stronghold in Idlib, a northern province, and went on the offensive, taking Aleppo, Hama, Homs and finally Damascus. In doing so, it ended the Assads' decades-long dictatorship.

But what is to come next, and what does this mean for Syria, which is still gripped by fragmentation and external pressure?

Will this bring stability to the region or will it result in new chaos and uncertainty?

HTS' takeover and Assad's fleeing have proven to be a decisive moment in a civil war that has gripped Syria for over 13 years.

The Arab Spring movement affected other countries in the region as well.

Countries like Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya experienced internal struggles and widespread demonstrations against corruption and economic hardship.

Longstanding dictators, such as Muammar Gaddafi of Libya and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, fell, bringing a moment of hope for democracy in the region.

In Syria, anti-government protests gave way to armed struggle with rebel groups emerging across the country.

Assad, deeply unpopular with the West and the Arab Gulf states due to his close alignment with Russia and Iran, faced domestic as well as international opposition.

Rebel groups — such as the Free Syrian Army, the Syrian Democratic Forces and HTS — emerged with the support of the United States, Turkiye and Arab Gulf countries.

Each group had different visions for the future of Syria and was driven by different ideologies, but all were focused on overthrowing the Assad government.

For over a decade, these factions had battled for control of Syria, but Damascus remained in Assad's grip until a week ago.

By taking the capital, HTS has emerged as the new face of national government, but it does not command control of the entire country and faces serious incursions. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces continues to hold parts of the north.

The eastern part of the country is not under the control of HTS and its allies.

Furthermore, factions loyal to Assad hold parts of the Mediterranean coast and the west of Syria, a stronghold of the Alawite religious sect, to which the Assad family belongs.

Russia, an ally of Assad, continues to have military bases in the country.

To make matters worse, Israel has launched an overland invasion of Syria.

Having negotiated a ceasefire with Hizbollah in Lebanon, Israel continues to wreak havoc and regional instability.

Despite international outcry and HTS refraining from declaring an all-out war on Israel, there is concern that the latter will expand its occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights.

But there are signs that HTS can control the country in due course and appears committed to getting the involvement of all groups.

One of its leaders, Dima Moussa, has talked about the need to unify all factions.

Some of these factions have come under the banner of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, which has released a statement declaring the need to transfer power to a transitional governing body with full executive powers, but has not outwardly mentioned HTS in this capacity.

This reticence about working with HTS either indicates the establishment of a separate transitional government under a united opposition banner or space to negotiate with HTS.

Time will tell if Syria remains fragmented or if we will see a move towards a more united (if pluralistic) state system.

A few days after taking over, HTS established an interim government with Mohammad al-Bashir as prime minister.

While it has support from Turkiye and has broken links with Al-Qaeda, it is still designated as a terrorist organisation by the United Nations, the US, the United Kingdom and some European countries.

However, the US has made overtures to HTS, which indicates a desire to seek a solution and work with the transitional government.

In the last month of the Biden administration, Washington wants to be more involved in the creation of a post-Assad Syria, but president-elect Donald Trump has hinted at a hands-off approach.

The question arises if Syria needs the US or any foreign involvement in its future, and if Syrians can decide on their country's fate.

Unfortunately, a post-Assad Syria will have to involve external players.

Turkiye, for instance, has been playing a vital role in the civil war. By backing HTS and other anti-Assad rebel groups, the Erdogan government has emerged victorious with the fall of Damascus, which has appeased some of its domestic opposition.

Conversely, the fall of the Assad government has been a major blow to Russia and Iran, its two major allies.

HTS' victory is likely to cause more friction between Turkiye, Russia and Iran as they navigate the future of Syria and their regional stakes.

Ankara has proven itself a key regional player whose political, military and financial investments have paid off.

It is unlikely it will stop now and leave HTS to oversee the transfer of power on its own.

Furthermore, with no concrete end to Israel's military incursion into Syria, Western pressure and the ceasing of arms sales from Western governments can be the only way to put Israel in its place.

In any case, despite the uncertainty ahead, there have been moments of jubilation.

Political prisoners were released. Refugees have flooded back to the country. Syrians abroad who had to flee for political reasons have expressed relief.

Many who have taken to social media to celebrate have also been cautious about what comes next.

For them, a Syria free from Assad is an important first step. But without internal cohesion and external support, it will still be a long road ahead.


The writer is a lecturer in Cold War history at Queen Mary University of London. She holds a DPhil in Oriental Studies from the University of Oxford

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