THE strategic outlook for 2025 in the South China Sea remains challenging.
With Donald Trump's re-election as United States president and his anti-China rhetoric, many believe there is very little hope or chance of de-escalation of geopolitical tensions over the South China Sea and Taiwan in the immediate future.
Trump has also threatened to impose 100 per cent tariffs on BRICS countries spearheaded by China and Russia. He dared the group to create a new currency or back any other currency (read: yuan) to replace the US dollar as a reserve currency.
Many analysts believe Trump's economic crusade against China will falter again. During his first term as president, he failed to stop China in its trajectory. His punitive tariffs have failed, according to Bloomberg, to reduce trade deficits and to contain China's economic and military rise.
In recent weeks, China has hit back at the US, going beyond tariffs and supply chain disruptions.
China has also showed its technological prowess in cybersecurity. Although Beijing has denied involvement, it could be behind the hacking of the US Treasury and two US telecommunications giants (AT&T and Verizon) in December 2024, as some have alleged.
We can expect to see more of these tit-for-tat measures between the two powers soon.
The uncertainties in the South China Sea will have a bearing on Malaysia's chairmanship of Asean: they had bedevilled earlier chairmen, too.
At best, Putrajaya can reduce the tensions by working out a modus vivendi mechanism between Manila and Beijing.
With the US having declared itself ready to come to the defence of the Philippines, a treaty ally since 1951, the region is once again poised for volatility.
Washington's willingness to stand up to China over Taiwan could worsen tensions.
A few missteps by either side could engulf the region in a conflict, undermining the security architecture Asean has assiduously built over the years.
Once broken, it will take years to rebuild signature security arrangements like the Asean Regional Forum, East Asia Summit and Defence Ministers' Meeting Plus. In the meantime, the vacuum is likely to attract other destructive forces.
Asean can only manage China. It will be futile to confront China in its backyard, a truth that the US should also heed.
Asean should continue to pursue bilateral talks or dialogues to manage crises and explore cooperative initiatives. While this method has been attempted before without concrete results, the mechanism remains valid.
It gives space to contending parties to communicate, express opinions and, when necessary, speak their minds! Acting as a punching bag, informal forums are useful to "get something off your chest", as the saying goes.
Engaging China constructively on the South China Sea requires a blend of diplomacy, practical cooperation, and strategic patience. The goal is to build trust, reduce tensions and seek win-win outcomes without compromising sovereignty.
Asean countries have been promoting these objectives via economic and political initiatives for years. For example, the Asean security signature project known as the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea has been ongoing since 1998.
Asean hopes to conclude the talks with China by 2026, when the Philippines assumes chairmanship of the grouping. Even so, it would not cancel out the geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea.
Better for Asean to stay out of the squabble between China and the US in the South China Sea.
One way to de-escalate is to stop large-scale military drills near contested areas while maintaining presence in domestic waters. Risky air or naval manoeuvres could spark clashes.
While constructive engagement with China requires resilience and pragmatism, Asean must try to balance respective sovereign rights with the higher pursuit of common interests by engaging China constructively and cooperatively through joint resource development.
The writer is founding director-
general of Maritime Institute of Malaysia