MALAYSIAN epidemiologists are a worried lot. And they have reasons to be.
Covid-19 cases are spiking in Sabah, made worse by the recent state election. And returnees are taking the coronavirus across the South China Sea to the peninsula.
Medical data indicate that since Sept 20, 119 cases have been traced to Sabah returnees. Not to mention the cases that have escaped the net. Yet, the government is making do with swab tests and stay-at-home order (HSO).
This is a path to being sorry. There are at least two reasons for this. One, swab tests are not enough. The coronavirus takes time to show up, usually up to 14 days. Hence, the universal two-week quarantine requirement.
At times, it doesn't show up at all in people who are said to be asymptomatic. Such people can and do become super spreaders.
To trace and test all the people whom the super spreaders have come into contact with is a humongous task. This is why people have to be disciplined enough to practise social and health protocols allthe time, at home or elsewhere.
All it takes is for one person to make, what may appear to be an insignificant slip, for the virus to jump hosts. Two, HSO doesn't work as well here. Not all Malaysians are as disciplined as our armed forces.
For that matter, foreigners who come here to work, too, have become indisciplined. They learn fast, but sadly, from errant Malaysians.
HSO is only good for people who are disciplined enough to self-isolate, even from family members. Everybody else needs to be placed in state-designated centres. Here, too, keen eyes must be on them and those who man the centres.
We wouldn't want what happened in Victoria, Australia, where indiscipline in a privately managed hotel turned-quarantine centre spread the virus super fast, forcing part of the state to go into a lockdown.
We have our own example in the person indexed as Sivagangga, a returnee from India, who, though he tested negative, broke quarantine only to spread the virus to unsuspecting people. Worryingly, he isn't the only one.
If we are not careful, the Sabah spike and the cases in the peninsula linked to it will bring a third wave of Covid-19 cases.
The government needs to act fast for the window to do so is shutting quickly, says epidemiologist Datuk Dr Awang Bulgiba Awang Mahmud, a professor at Universiti Malaya.
Though it is hard to be precise about how long the window would remain open, a two-week time frame may not be too far off.
First, the Health Ministry needs to quickly isolate all the cases and place them in government or government-designated hospitals.
Second, there needs to be an aggressive tracing of people who have come into contact with the cases.
Next, the ministry must make it mandatory for all returnees from Sabah to be quarantined for 14 days at government-designated quarantine centres.
This shouldn't be a problem given that there were more than 400 such centres when they were first gazetted.
Discount a few for attrition over the months Covid-19 has hounded us, there still should be a generous number to house them.
No one should be exempted. After all, the virus doesn't discriminate.
Finally, as another epidemiologist suggested to the NST on Wednesday, a travel ban to and from Sabah will not be amiss.
If we want to isolate the virus, we must first go into isolation.