Just days after the United Nations-backed International Criminal Court slapped arrest warrants against Israel's genocidal leaders came the surprising American/French-backed ceasefire to end Israeli-Hizbollah hostilities inside Lebanon.
The Israeli cabinet wholeheartedly approved the truce despite the imperfections to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's machinations, who with ex–defence minister Yoav Gallant, and a former Hamas commander, are wanted for alleged war crimes.
While armistices of any sort might threaten to end his premiership, Netanyahu seems to anticipate sudden reprisals from United States president Joe Biden. Netanyahu fears that Biden, in bowing out of his American presidency with nothing to lose but everything to gain, may sign executive orders to end US arms supply to Israel, undergirded by a UN resolution.
Netanyahu is forced to be pragmatic: a US not habitually vetoing an anti-Israel UN resolution will choke armaments and infrastructural supplies. The ceasefire is strategic for Israel, which can deploy more troops to Gaza to eliminate Hamas, isolated in Gaza with no indication of a similar accord.
The bigger question is, why not? There's still the issue of 100 hostages. The answer? The Israeli far-right hungers Gaza for its expansion and resettlement plans. That's why Netanyahu, who faces serious corruption charges with his wife, has pushed back a Gazan ceasefire to further exploit the Israel Defence Forces' murderous brutalities.
The ceasefire requires Hizbollah to remove its fighters and weapons within 60 days from the Blue Line (unofficial border between Lebanon and Israel) and Litani river, 30km to the north. With no American troops present, a 5,000-strong Lebanese force will assume position to remove all military infrastructure or weaponry.
At the same time, Israel will withdraw their forces, allowing civilians to return home after suffering under Israel's two-month bombardment that killed 3,800 Lebanese, injuring 15,000 and displacing one million, including 500,000 Syrian refugees.
A drawback: the Lebanese have no money, manpower and equipment to enforce the détente, which means pleading for something like US$8 billion in international reconstruction aid. Then there's this concern: what is the Lebanese army's role in enforcing the ceasefire? Should they confront Hizbollah because the littlest altercation can aggravate tensions fuelled by decades of sectarian enmities.
Israel is banking on that after insisting on maintaining "freedom of military action", a pledge Hizbollah found ominous. Besides, the Israeli insistence for the right to retaliate is rejected by Lebanon. This is where Israel will sweet talk big brother America for a "pampered" endorsement for Israel's "right to act."
The suspension in fighting does enable Lebanon to re-establish control over its own territory where entire southern villages had been destroyed by Israeli military. Another longstanding woe: resolving the nation's economic crisis where Lebanese soldiers are forced to moonlight as taxi drivers to supplement their meagre stipend.