LETTERS: In the short term, expecting any policy changes from the current Israeli regime is premature for the simple reason that if he does make such changes, Benjamin Netanyahu's political career would come to an end, with the prospect of facing a jail term.
Itamar Ben-Gvir who leads Otzma Yehudit party and leader of the National Religious Party–Religious Zionism, Bezalel Smotrich hold 14 seats in the Knesset, which is crucial for Netanyahu. They can easily pull the rug out from under him.
The ICC arrest warrants are a positive development in the long term. If Netanyahu decides to continue military actions in Lebanon and Gaza, two things will happen.
First, Israel will become further isolated from the international community.
While the arrest warrants may be easy to ignore (at least for Israel), they are slowly but surely creeping on Israel's diplomatic relations with Western European countries willing to support the ICC's decision.
Statements from Rome, Dublin, Stockholm, the Netherlands, and Paris suggest they would respect the ICC's decision and could potentially arrest Netanyahu if he travels to their countries.
The Netherlands was the clearest. Caspar Veldkamp, the Dutch Foreign Minister, issued a statement that the Netherlands will arrest Netanyahu if he sets foot in the country.
Veldkamp's forthcoming visit to Israel has been cancelled by Israel's Foreign Minister for this very reason.
Netanyahu will experience the pinch most in Western Europe. Politically speaking, this is Israel's strongest support base outside the United States.
Therefore, not only do he, Yoav Gallant and other Israeli officials risk arrest, but they are also pushing Israel into deeper isolation from influential countries that have traditionally been Israel's strongest allies.
This is a strategic defeat for Israel.
The above brings us directly to the next point on arms exports. Even before the ICC announcement two days ago, countries like Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and France in 2024 had already imposed or called for restrictions on arms exports to Israel, reflecting a broader trend of distancing themselves from its policies.
The ICC decision is likely to embolden Western European countries to formalise and expand these measures.
This raises another key consideration: could the ICC decision prompt discussions about limited economic sanctions on Israel?
Precedents from Sudan, Libya, and the Congo, where ICC warrants led to sanctions, suggest that this is at least a possibility.
While a comprehensive embargo is unlikely due to Israel's strong international trade ties and US support, targeted sanctions on specific industries or financial entities could emerge.
Could all these scenarios snowball and push Israel closer to becoming an international pariah — perhaps even more so than previously imagined?
With Western European nations recalibrating their policies, the risk of increasing diplomatic — and potentially economic — isolation now appears to be a distinct possibility.
DR FEROOZE ALI
Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin