BANGKOK: The Shinawatras are back. Nearly 20 years after the army ousted Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand's most famous – and controversial – political dynasty is in power again through his daughter Paetongtarn, the new prime minister.
The 38-year-old and her new cabinet take the oath of office on Friday with questions looming about how much influence Thaksin will have on the new government, and whether Paetongtarn can avoid the fate suffered by her father and aunt – both kicked out as PM in military coups.
Paetongtarn is the heir to a political dynasty established by Thaksin with back-to-back election wins in 2001 and 2005, which came after he made a fortune in telecoms.
His "Thaksinomics" policies of debt relief and social welfare programmes earned him huge and lasting support from rural and working-class voters previously ignored by Thai politicians.
But his success infuriated the traditional elite of generals, senior bureaucrats, courtiers and business leaders who saw Thaksin as corrupt and his policies as a threat to the long-established social order.
The army ousted Thaksin in a coup in 2006, and he fled Thailand for 15 years as mass street protests, elections and judicial interventions roiled the kingdom.
Thaksin's parties kept winning elections – coming first in every one until last year – only to be thrown out by court orders or coups.
His sister Yingluck became prime minister after the 2011 election until she too was toppled by the generals in 2014.
For millions of poorer Thais, Thaksin's government brought economic security and social mobility, Napon Jatusripitak of Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute told AFP.
The establishment's attempts to suppress Thaksin and his allies served only to burnish his reputation among supporters, he added.
"Paradoxically this legacy has endured not because Thaksin continued to perform economic miracles, but because of the widespread impression that he had been blocked from doing so by forces threatened by his rise to power," Napon said.
Paetongtarn carried the family brand to a new generation in last year's election and, with her youth and taste for designer clothes, brought a dash of glamour to a political scene long dominated by elderly men in suits and uniforms.
More prosaically, the Shinawatra family's vast wealth has enabled it to maintain extensive patronage networks – a vital tool in Thailand's shady political scene.
The economic picture is grim. Thailand has struggled to bounce back from the Covid-19 pandemic and the government has made little progress on its flagship "digital wallet" cash handout policy.
"There's no honeymoon period for Paetongtarn and it will be a very, very tough job," analyst Virot Ali of Thammasat University told AFP.
The tricky climate could endanger the long-enduring Shinawatra reputation.
Thaksin has "never really been given the chance to fail in delivering on his promises – until now, that is", Napon said.
A bigger threat to Paetongtarn will likely come from the conservative elite that sank her father and aunt's rule.
Evidence of the establishment's clout came last month when her predecessor as PM, Srettha Thavisin, was thrown out of office by the Constitutional Court following a petition by ex-senators appointed by the last junta.
Khemthong Tonsakulrungruang, an analyst from Chulalongkorn University, said that while a full-blown coup was "very unlikely", trouble could come from judicial or anti-corruption bodies with close ties to the military old guard.
They will watch closely for Thaksin wielding undue influence over his daughter's government.
"If he makes a mistake, if the government makes a mistake, it is very possible that the court is going to aggressively review that mistake and might axe the government," Khemthong told AFP.
The emergence of the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) at last year's election, where it won most seats, posed a threat to both the Shinawatras' Pheu Thai party and the conservative establishment.
Pheu Thai buried the hatchet with conservative pro-military parties to form a coalition to shut MFP out of government.
MFP was dissolved by court order last month but immediately reformed as the People's Party, with the same pledges to reduce military influence, break up business monopolies and reform lese-majeste laws.
"Right now the establishment's biggest concern is the emergence of Move Forward – now the People's Party," Khemthong said.
"I think this is an existential threat."
For now at least, it seems to serve the establishment's interests to keep Paetongtarn in power.
But in the long run the deal with the pro-military parties could come to haunt the Shinawatras as it is seen by many liberal voters as a betrayal, Khemthong said.