August 12State Elections
The imminent showdown between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and its allies in the unity government against Perikatan Nasional (PN) and its partners is set to happen on August 12.
The polling day for the state elections in Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu, Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan will see both sides staking claim as the party of choice to represent the people.
In the lead up to D-day for the political parties and aspiring individuals contesting the state elections, here is an overview of possible scenarios once the votes are cast.
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What analysts have to say:
KEDAH (36 seats)
Contrary to GE15, where PN, PH and BN were battling multi-cornered fights, this state election will be a straight fight between PN and PH-BN.
Based on the combined votes secured by PH-BN during GE14 held in 2018, the unity government components possess an ample enough vote bank to mount a serious challenge to PN.
Thus, this state election will be an acid test of PH and BN’s capability to push for vote-transferability among its supporters
PENANG (40 seats)
Barring a cataclysmic turn of events, the PH-BN coalition is set to return to power in Penang in the upcoming state election.
A win would mark PH's fourth-term in office, this time around with its new ally, BN, after both had set up the unity government in Putrajaya following the 15th General Election in November last year.
PH will bank on its proven track record of the past 15 years to justify why voters should give them another mandate.
SELANGOR (56 seats)
PH seem to realise they are in the driving seat.
Selangor PH election director Mohd Yahya Mat Sahri recently said the state government's achievements would serve as campaign material to garner support from the people of Selangor.
“It is counterproductive to campaign with accusations, instead, we should focus on highlighting our accomplishments and future plans. I believe Selangor folk will be more receptive to that,” Mohd Yahya was quoted as saying.
NEGRI SEMBILAN (36 seats)
Ahead of the state polls, Umno had demanded more seats for BN from PH, on the grounds of "making sacrifices" in the spirit of cooperation in the unity government.
Both coalitions also had differing opinions on who should become the next Menteri Besar.
The silver lining for PH and BN, however, is the people’s general level of satisfaction with Aminuddin’s administration so far.
TERENGGANU (32 seats)
While much has been made of Pas’ formidable ‘green wave’ in the run up to the state election, experts believe that the PH-BN union could pull off a ‘smash and grab’ in at least 10 seats.
Dr Mazlan Ali, a political analyst from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, said ground readings suggested rumblings of discontent with the state government’s performance.
The perceived lack of support by Pas for initiatives for Terengganu folk, including bread and butter issues, they believe, might work in PH-BN’s favour.
KELANTAN (45 seats)
Political analyst and Universiti Teknologi Mara's (UiTM) Institution of Malay Rulers Chair Fellow, Mujibu Abd Muis said the PH-BN pact must offer more remarkable solutions, aside from only focusing on the development of the state.
“Despite the urgent need for development and infrastructure, Pas have very special bonds that go beyond those of a political party.
“In this case, the PH-BN pact must offer more than just development to lure the locals,” he said.”
Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will solidify his position as prime minister of the multi-coalition unity government if Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) win big in the state elections.
Observers believe PH and BN can not only retain control of economic powerhouse states such as Selangor and Penang as well as Negri Sembilan, but the rivals-turned-allies may even expand its influence in Kedah and Terengganu.
Umno, experts believe, can deliver the much-needed Malay backing and support for Anwar and may even spring a surprise by wresting Terengganu in the Aug 12 polls.
Political analyst Dr Ainul Adzellie Hasnul said landslide victory for PH-BN will put to rest any attempts and movement to dismantle the federal government.
"It would allow Anwar and his cabinet to focus on more important matters such as developing the country's economy and look for ways to elevate the welfare and livelihood of the people," he said.
What analysts have to say:
KEDAH (36 seats)
PN is expected to retain Kedah in the upcoming state elections, if the results of last year’s 15th General Election is anything to go by.
Post-GE15 analyses showed that PN won comfortable majority votes in 25 state seats. Should the voting pattern in the coming polls continue, PN will retain Kedah.
PH is expected to retain eight out of the 12 state seats it won in the previous election.
PENANG (40 seats)
PH has managed to strengthen its hold on the state every general election since 2008, during which it swept 29 of the 40 state seats, followed by 30 seats and 37 seats, respectively, in the 2013 and 2018 polls.
In the coming state election, it is looking to secure between 30 and 32 seats.
SELANGOR (56 seats)
The PH-BN coalition holds the advantage in the fight for Selangor due to the state government’s proven track record, analysts say.
They say people are generally happy with the Selangor government’s performance over the years and see no reason to rock the boat.
NEGRI SEMBILAN (36 seats)
If GE15 is anything to go by, rivals-turned-partners PH and BN look set to retain Negri Sembilan after the Aug 12 state polls. Negri Sembilan was the only state which was spared the Pas and PN 'green wave', which cut a swathe through the political landscape.
However, significant changes over the last eight months means that parties aligned with the unity government need to work extra hard to prevent an upset win for PN.
TERENGGANU (32 seats)
Mujibu Abdul Muis, a fellow at the Institution of Malay Rulers Chair, Universiti Teknologi Mara, said while Terengganu will still remain under Pas, there is a chance that PH-BN might edge out its opponents in seats which Pas has a slim majority.
Pas, he said, has to work hard to defend some seats including Bukit Besi, Kuala Besut and Batu Rakit, all of which have slim majorities.
“Pas will continue its grip on the state as there are no leaders or candidates of caliber from BN to match them,” he said.
KELANTAN (45 seats)
If any, the results of GE15 were a clear and strong indication that the Islamist party, Pas, could retain its status quo for the state election in Kelantan.
The component party under PN had won big and gained a landslide victory, where it secured all 14 parliamentary seats in the state.
In the 2018 state election, the party also successfully acquired 37 out of 45 state seats, with the remaining won by BN’s Umno.
Political analyst Dr Ainul Adzellie Hasnul believes that PH and its partners in the unity government will continue to retain control over Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan, while PN is likely to return as the state governments in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
"Having said that, a tough fight may take place in Terengganu where PH and BN seem to have a good fight in the state although the contest is still in favour of PN.
"Despite the much talked about 'green wave', I believe that it is a tall order for the PN to wrest states controlled by PH such as Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan.
"PH have a good track record in governing these three states. This made it difficult for PN to capture these three states although the coalition has the potential to win more seats in the polls," he said.
Professor James Chin, from the University of Tasmania's Asia Institute, concurred with Ainul when he considered Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan as "very safe" for PH.
What analysts have to say:
KEDAH (36 seats)
PN, spearheaded by Pas, was dominant in the rural parliamentary seats and even sprung a surprise by sweeping urban parliamentary seats traditionally held by PH, save for the Sungai Petani seat.
Umno was totally wiped out in Kedah in GE15 after losing its last remaining two strongholds, Padang Terap and Baling.
Based on this scenario, PN might even win more than the 20 seats it held prior to the dissolution of the state assembly on June 28.
PENANG (40 seats)
While victory for PH and BN is almost certain in Penang, the extent of the win is up for debate, given the growing support among the local Malay community for Perikatan Nasional.
PN is banking on the Malay support to make inroads into the state. They are almost certain of securing all the Malay-majority seats.
If PN plays its cards right and tap into the Malay support, they can make inroads into Penang.
SELANGOR (56 seats)
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the thorny issue of seat allocations for PH-BN could work in PN’s favour.
“Any dissatisfactions which lead to multi-corner contests in the election could place the advantage in PN’s hands,” said Tawifk.
Other issues for PH include the new faces put forth to replace incumbents who decided not to contest in the state election, as well as the cost of living and higher prices of goods in Selangor.
NEGRI SEMBILAN (36 seats)
On paper, PN is moving mountains in a bid to create an upset against the PH-BN pact in Negri Sembilan, which comprises 36 state constituencies.
A sticking point which may deny PH and BN a landslide victory is the tension over seat distribution, which leaders from both sides had attempted to play down.
The dispute, if left unresolved, could be capitalised on by PN to make inroads into Negri Sembilan.
TERENGGANU (32 seats)
Pas had declared its intent to contest 27 out of the 32 state seats. Out of those, 22 seats were won by the party during the last state election in 2018.
The party is also believed to be gunning for five BN-held seats in Kuala Besut, Batu Rakit, Bukit Besi, Seberang Takir and Hulu Besut.
Terengganu was considered a BN stronghold until 2018, when Pas swept into power by gaining 22 out of 32 seats to form the new state government.
KELANTAN (45 seats)
Sources on the ground said it would be a tough road ahead for the Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) pact to win, or even crack some holes in securing several state seats.
A source in the know also revealed that Pas has always been favoured by the locals due to their consistent and continuous visits on the ground, unlike the PH-BN leaders who only come during the elections period.
Nine months since last November’s general election, the “green wave”, which saw the rise of Pas, has yet to subside.
Observers expect another round of “green wave” to unleash its fury during the state elections with PN maintaining control over its stronghold in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
PN chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin has predicted that the opposition pact could pull off a surprise by capturing economic powerhouse states such as Selangor and Negri Sembilan.
Sacked Umbo leader Khairy Jamaluddin said dissatisfaction among the Malays was not so much due to the “green wave”, but the unity government’s failure to establish a clear economic direction for the country.
"What we may see at the state polls is less a 'green wave' than a tsunami of discontent," he said.
Predict which scenario will come to pass:
PH wins big
Status quo
PN makes gains
registered voters will be expected to cast their ballots through 17,048 voting streams at 3,190 polling centres in Selangor, Negri Sembilan, Kedah, Penang, Kelantan and Terengganu on Aug 12.
Stay tuned for the latest updates on Malaysia’s 15th state elections on the New Straits Times.
Written by:
Qistina Sallehuddin
Adib Povera
Rizalman Hammim
Audrey Dermawan
Adie Zulkifli