KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit is likely to perform better this year, cemented by Malaysia’s improved balance of payments (BOP) last year that enabled the country to remain as a net lender, analysts said.
The local unit ended 2017 with an average of 4.30 per US dollar, Asia’s second best performing currency, from the average 4.11 the year before.
Year-to-date, the ringgit remains one of the strongest currencies in Asia, rising about three per cent vis-a-vis the dollar, analysts said.
They said the BOP, which record all economic transactions with the rest of the world, improved in 2017 as a turnaround in the country’s financial accounts lifted performance, thanks to improving sentiment in the equity market.
Stronger current account conditions also helped, reinforcing Malaysia’s position as a net lender.
Affin Hwang Capital expect the current account surplus to likely to remain sizable this year. Nevertheless, due to the high base effect last year, the firm said Malaysia’s export growth would slow.
‘But we believe that the trade surplus will remain healthy in the range of RM95 billion to RM98 billion (RM97.2 billion in 2017). We expect the current account to remain in a surplus, but likely narrow to the RM30-35 billion projected for 2018 (RM40.3 billion or 3.3 per cent of gross national income in 2017).
Public Investment Bank Bhd (PublicInvest) said Malaysia is expected to maintain its position as a net lender in 2017 and looks set to repeat this in 2018 looking at current fundamentals.
“This cements our view that the ringgit is likely to perform better this year thanks to a multitude of factors that will ensure its steady rise. This includes, but not limited to, steady growth in exports and sustained rise in financial markets,” it said in a report today.
The firm said crucially, the financial accounts posted a turnaround from a net outflow of RM1.1 billion in 2016 to a net inflow of RM2.2 billion last year, Malaysia’s first net inflow in the last few years.
It added that the competitive ringgit also aided demand for physical goods (i.e. exports). This is reflected in current account surplus of 3.1 per cent to gross domestic product last year versus 2.4 per cent in 2016.
The country’s current account balance increased by RM11.2 billion from the previous year mainly due to further expansion in goods account (2017: RM118 billion; 2016: RM101 billion)., PublicInvest said. This was in line with gross exports that jumped 9.6 per cent for the year.
This was, however, offset by higher outflow in the services account (2017: -RM23 billion; 2016: -RM19 billion) caused mainly by higher outflow of investment income, namely direct investment (2017: -RM33 billionn; 2016: -RM30 billionn). Portfolio investment managed to arrest some outflows following a slight reduction in deficit to RM11.4 billion last year from a deficit of RM13.4 billion in 2016.
PublicInvest said the higher services account deficit was also contributed by bigger outflow in transport (2017: -RM29.7 billion; 2016: -RM23.5 billion), construction (2017: -RM12.6 billion; 2016: -RM8.1 billion) and insurance and pension services (2017: -RM8.8 billion; 2016: -RM7.9 billion).
Secondary income deficit remained at RM18.6 billionn, cementing the fact that Malaysia is still home to a sizeable number of foreign workers.
The firm said crucially, the financial accounts posted a turnaround from a net outflow of RM1.1 billion in 2016 to a net inflow of RM2.2 billion last year, Malaysia’s first net inflow in the last few years.
It added that the competitive ringgit also aided demand for physical goods (i.e. exports). This is reflected in current account surplus of 3.1 per cent to gross domestic product last year versus 2.4 per cent in 2016.