KUALA LUMPUR: Sales volume for new vehicles are likely to reach 600,000 units this year, growing at 18.8 per cent year-on-year (YoY) due to the low base effect from 2021.
Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd (HLIB Research) said the sales volume, which is measured by the total industry volume (TIV), would be well supported by the extension of the sales and services tax (SST) exemptions until the first half (1H) of 2022.
"However, sales might slow down in the second half (2H) of 2022. Overall 2022 TIV landscape can be divided into two periods: a strong 1H of 2022 driven by the robust demand during the SST exemption period (until June 2022).
"This will be followed by a weak 2H of 2022, post-SST exemption, as consumers would have already brought forward their purchases," said analyst Daniel Wong in a research note today.
The research firm expected a challenging 2H of 2022 with stiff competition across the board.
Wong said original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) would have to leverage on exciting new models launches to support sales in 2H of 2022.
"We expect domestic OEMs Proton (DRB-Hicom Bhd) and Perodua (MBM Resources Bhd and UMW Holdings Bhd) to continue to outperform their competitors over the longer term.
"This is driven by attractively priced new models and new export programmes," he said.
Attractive new launches include Proton - new Geely-based model; Perodua (UMW and MBM) – Myvi facelift and new Alza; Honda (DRB) – new City hatchback and new HR-V; Toyota (UMW) – new Cross, facelift Vios and Yaris.
He said consumer sentiment could also sustain into 2022 as the reopening hits full swing.
Wong said the continued low 1.75 per cent Overnight Policy Rate in 2022 could provide a certain degree of cost savings conducive for new car purchases.
"We estimated a -25 basis points effect on a monthly instalment of -RM15/month (based on RM80,000 car price, with 90 per cent loan application and nine-year loan period."
Nevertheless, HLIB Research expected the Bank Negara Malaysia only to hike up 25 bps towards the end of 2022 as Malaysia's economic recovery becomes more entrenched.
It added the automotive sector is expected to benefit from ringgit appreciation against the US dollar and Japanese Yen in 2022.
"We expect ringgit/US dollar to appreciate from the current level of 4.20 to average 4.16 level in 2022 and similarly JPY (x100) also to appreciate to average 3.63 level in 2022."
Wong said stronger ringgit would lower the effective input costs for imported completely built-up (CBU) cars, complete-knock down (CKD) packs and raw materials, and subsequently improve OEMs' margins.
HLIB Research has maintained a Neutral call on the automotive sector with Buy recommendations on DRB-Hicom at RM2.30, MBMR at RM4.80 and Sime Darby Bhd at RM2.68.
Meanwhile, the government has started to push for electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Malaysia as part of its target of becoming a carbon-neutral nation by as early as 2050.
HLIB Research said the proposals under Low Carbon Mobility Blueprint 2021-2030 included the incentives for battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) import and domestic development programme and development for charging infrastructure.
Under the 2022 Budget, full exemption on import duty, excise duty and sales tax for EV vehicles (CKD for four years from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2025, and CBU for two years from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2023.
The government has also given road tax exemption of up to 100 per cent to EV vehicles.
Additionally, the government would give individual income tax relief of up to RM2,500 on the cost of purchase and installation, rental and hire purchase of facilities, and payment of EV charging facility subscription fees for tax assessment years 2022 and 2023.
HLIB Research said major OEMs such as BMW and Hyundai (Sime Darby), Mazda, Kia, Peugeot (Bermaz Auto Bhd), Volvo (MBMR and Sime Darby), Toyota (UMW) and Nissan (Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd) have already lined up BEV launches to take advantage of the incentives.
"However, we do not expect materials sales volume of BEV in 2022-2023, as the mass adoption of BEV will take longer-term to realise due to major concern of the availability and efficiency of charging infrastructure and the unavailability of cheap entry-level BEVs."
HLIB Research said some OEMs had made modifications to their product offerings to reduce the number of microchips needed on the supply chain disruption.
"Nevertheless, we expect the overall situation to improve in 2022 due to a combination of semiconductors supply would have been higher as compared to the initial supply shock in 2021; OEMs have a better production and source planning/schedule, and promoting models which are less subject to supply risk disruption."