KUALA LUMPUR: The surge in Malaysia's technology-related stocks is unlikely to maintain its upward momentum, as analysts expressed growing concerns over high valuations.
The market has witnessed a significant rally in this sector, but analysts caution that the current prices may not be sustainable in the long run.
Bursa Malaysia's Technology Index reached a high of 63.35 points before selling pressure pushed it to a low of 62.50 points during the day.
The index closed marginally higher at 62.72 points.
Tradeview Capital Sdn Bhd fund manager Neoh Jia Man said the recent surge in the technology stocks can be attributed to two main factors – the anticipation for a decline in bond yields and the exuberant excitement surrounding the potential of artificial intelligence.
However, he said the rally has led to an overvaluation of technology stocks.
He added that the S&P 500 Information Technology Index is currently trading near a decade-high level, with a forward price to earnings (P/E) multiple of 28 times, representing a 47 per cent premium compared to its historical average.
Similarly, he said the Bursa Malaysia Technology Index is commanding an above-average valuation, with a forward P/E multiple of 24 times.
The historical average PE for Bursa Malaysia Technology Index is 21 times.
"Given the weaker near-term earnings prospect - management of the few technology companies that we looked at only expect recovery to come in second half of 2023 - we think it shouldn't command a valuation that is above average," Neoh told New Straits Times.
He added that despite the limited upside potential for further gains in technology stocks, he remains positive on the long term prospects of technology companies.
Neoh said the positive factors supporting this view include the continued growth of secular trends such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, and digitalisation.
Additionally, Neoh said local technology companies stand to gain from the ongoing trade diversion from China, which presents opportunities for them to gain new customers.
"However, we are concerned about the potential impact of a US recession on the tech industry. "This will negatively impact demand for technology products and services over the near-term," he noted.
Rakuten Trade Sdn Bhd equity research vice-president Thong Pak Leng concurred that the technology stocks rally is not sustainable, as Malaysian technology counters are not high-end like the US.
He added that technology manufacturers may not be sustainable but service providers will do fine.
"The US are technology leaders so they can sustain longer. We are just low-technology manufacturing, and don't have premium. "Therefore, I don't think the rally is sustainable," he said.
Thong opined that the domestic rally in technology stocks is driven by investor sentiment rather than fundamentals, and more sensitive to policy rate changes due to higher leverage.
Kenanga Research has maintained a "Neutral" stance on the overall technology sector with positive outlook on Kelington Group Bhd and LGMS Bhd due to its favourable prospects.