KUALA LUMPUR: Petroliam Nasional Bhd's (Petronas) dividend payout is estimated to be lower than RM32 billion in 2025 following weaker 2024 performance amid declining oil prices.
RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) said that gaining insight into Petronas' dividend expectations for 2025 is crucial as discussions continue between Petroleum Sarawak (Petros) and Petronas.
It added that the government is likely to prioritise green energy efforts to support the National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR).
"In line with this, we would not be surprised to see an allocation for renewable energy development and, perhaps, grid infrastructure upgrades to facilitate initiatives like the Corporate Renewable Energy Supply Scheme (CRESS)," it said in a research note.
According to RHB Research, one notable measure that may be included in Budget 2025 is the continuation or expansion of cash rebates under the Net Energy Metering (NEM) programme, which could further drive solar adoption, particularly among homeowners.
It noted that additional support for residential solar power, especially for the B40 group, through low-interest loans and subsidies, could promote wider adoption.
Meanwhile, the government is still assessing the impact of diesel subsidy rationalisation, thus the firm said it is likely that the implementation of the RON95 subsidy removal may not be highlighted in the upcoming budget.
"On the other hand, should more details regarding the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone be announced, we believe Pengerang—a targeted petrochemical hub—will benefit as well," it added.
As the 12th Malaysia Plan is entering the final year, RHB Research estimates 2025 net development expenditure at RM90 billion.
Meanwhile, the nation's fiscal deficit target for 2025 could narrow down to 3.5 per cent from 4.3 per cent target in 2024.