KUALA LUMPUR: The privatisation of Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB) by a consortium led by Khazanah Nasional Bhd is expected to succeed at the offer price of RM11, according to Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd.
The firm noted that a higher offer is unlikely, as most investors are expected to accept the RM11 price, which represents an all-time high for the stock.
Macquarie Capital maintained its 'Neutral' call on MAHB with a target price of RM10.58.
A consortium comprising Khazanah Nasional Bhd, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF), Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) formally launched a conditional voluntary offer last Friday to privatise MAHB.
Macquarie Capital said the consortium currently owns a collective 41.22 per cent stake.
"Based on Bloomberg data, Retirement Fund Incorporated (KWAP) and Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) hold a combined 11.5 per cent stake in MAHB, while BlackRock (a shareholder of GIP) holds 2.0 per cent. Given the strong government support for the privatisation, we believe the two government-linked shareholders (KWAP and PNB) and BlackRock are likely to accept the offer - resulting in a collective shareholding of 54.73 per cent.
"This means the consortium will need 35.27 per cent acceptance to privatise MAHB. We believe the risks skew towards acceptance, as a year-end completion implies a 28 per cent annualised upside from our upgrade on July 2," it said in a note.
In a separate note, CLSA Ltd noted that MAHB's share price rose 40 per cent year-to-date (YTD), which pointed to the market's confidence in the deal.
"The consortium is offering the holders the opportunity to realise their investment in the offer shares for cash at the offer price of RM11, which is at a four per cent premium to Friday's closing price.
"The share price has risen over 40 per cent YTD, which appears to signal the market's confidence in the deal materialising.
"According to the announcement, we gather that an offer document from the joint offerors should be released within 21 days of the announcement, with an independent advice circular within 31 days," it added.
The firm kept its 'Hold' rating on MAHB with a target price of RM11.