THE upcoming US presidential election in 2024 has Malaysia, like much of Southeast Asia, carefully weighing its options in a world shifting from unipolar to multipolar.
It's a world where the dance between superpowers is growing ever more complex, and for Malaysia, it's less about choosing sides and more about crafting a new, nimble kind of diplomacy - call it "the art of balancing on the beam."
If Kamala Harris wins, we'd likely see continuity in the Biden administration's Indo Pacific strategy, with a focus on strengthening alliances in Southeast Asia. This might offer Malaysia the relative comfort of stable US engagement, helping Malaysia hold the line in the South China Sea and serving as a cornerstone for its Asean chairmanship in 2025.
Here, Malaysia's strategic ambiguity - staying friendly with everyone but allied to none - allows it to benefit from both US security and Chinese trade without being bound to either.
A Trump win, though, could throw that delicate dance out of sync.
A return to Trump's brand of "America First" would mean an unpredictable and often transactional US approach, potentially fueling US-China rivalry in ways that pull Malaysia into difficult strategic choices.
This scenario would pressure Malaysia to rely even more on its non-alignment policies while fortifying trade ties with China, but also to keep one eye on Washington in case the demands start coming.
Trump's view on de-dollarization could even lead to penalties for Malaysia if it shifts closer to the BRICS framework, so Malaysia would have to play its cards even more carefully, pushing forward with currency diversification only when it's strategically sound.
As Malaysia steps into its 2025 role as Asean chair, it'll face the challenge of keeping Asean both neutral and relevant in an era where major powers are increasingly treating Southeast Asia as the battleground for influence.
Malaysia, with China as its largest trading partner for over a decade, will aim to avoid rocking the boat in its economic dealings with Beijing, but it also needs to maintain solid ties with the US for regional stability.
Here, multilateral trade frameworks like the CPTPP and RCEP become lifelines, offering a way to hedge its bets and diversify trade across Asia-Pacific and beyond.
Malaysia is looking at the world through the lens of multipolarity, which means engaging with BRICS becomes a tantalizing option.
The expanded BRICS alliance represents a growing bloc of countries exploring alternatives to the dollar, an idea that's gaining traction among nations wary of U.S. influence.
But while the allure of de-dollarisation and BRICS offers long-term possibilities, Malaysia must play a delicate game; any overt alignment with BRICS, especially under a Trump administration, could come with a steep price. And yet, the pull of multipolarity means Malaysia cannot ignore this pathway.
Malaysia's position - call it the middle path - has to be flexible. As an increasingly connected world becomes more fragmented, Malaysia's legacy of non-alignment and quiet diplomacy might just be its best asset.
Asean leadership, digital diplomacy, and strategic ambiguity will give Malaysia the ability to move seamlessly between the spheres of influence, preserving its autonomy while staying adaptable in a world where tomorrow's ally might be the day after's rival.
In a world pivoting toward deglobalization and the realignment of supply chains, Malaysia finds itself at a crucial juncture where economic diplomacy must evolve swiftly.
The rise of friend-shoring - repositioning supply chains based on geopolitical trust - creates both challenges and openings.
Malaysia, historically reliant on export-driven growth, must diversify its investments and reduce trade dependencies on major powers like China and the US embracing a legacy of Kancil diplomacy - the artful, nimble style inspired by the clever mousedeer in Malay folklore. Much like the Kancil, Malaysia can leverage its neutral, stable position to attract companies seeking security from geopolitical shifts.
Public policy that attracts investment in Industrial Revolution 4.0 technologies, AI , and green
energy will be key, enabling Malaysia to seize growth opportunities while addressing issues like the digital divide and climate change.
Malaysia's role in Asean offers another dimension to its diplomatic toolkit. With Southeast Asia becoming a strategic battleground for influence, Malaysia's strategic ambiguity - friendly with all but aligned to none - allows it to maintain security ties with the US while preserving trade relations with China.
Track 2 diplomacy - informal dialogues - may offer an avenue for Malaysia to mediate in broader conflicts, like the Ukraine crisis, helping maintain Southeast Asia's stability.
In an era of digital diplomacy, Malaysia's agility in AI and big data will strengthen its role in global governance, addressing cybersecurity, the digital divide, and AI ethics.
Continued investment in education, innovation, and digital infrastructure will be critical to sustaining its global competitiveness. Engaging with BRICS could amplify Malaysia's voice in a multipolar world increasingly interested in alternatives to US dominance, but the risks of overt alignment remain high, particularly under a Trump presidency (Trump-proofing).
Ultimately, Malaysia's "middle path" hinges on flexibility. Its non-aligned, quiet diplomacy remains one of its strongest assets, and as it adapts to a multipolar world, Malaysia can preserve autonomy and relevance.
* The writer is an adjunct lecturer at Universiti Teknologi Petronas, international relations analyst and a senior consultant with Global Asia Consulting. He has a background as a senior researcher at the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research.