The Emperor's New Clothes
In Hans Christian Andersen's "The Emperor's New Clothes," a vain emperor is deceived by two swindlers who claim they can weave clothes so fine they are invisible to anyone unfit for their position or who are foolish. Everyone in the kingdom, from the emperor's ministers to the common people, pretends to see these non-existent clothes out of fear of being thought as unfit or stupid. It takes a child, innocent and unafraid of the social pressures, to point out that the emperor is actually parading through the streets in nothing at all!This timeless tale is a powerful metaphor for the pitfalls of groupthink and the dangers of collective delusion.
Think tanks, those influential institutions shaping public policy, can sometimes resemble the emperor's court. Just as the emperor's subjects went along with the charade, think tanks can fall into the trap of groupthink, where challenging the dominant narrative is discouraged, and dissenting voices are silenced. When a think tank is deeply embedded in a particular ideology or dependent on specific funding sources, it risks producing research that merely echoes the views of its benefactors, much like the emperor's ministers who pretended to see the invisible clothes.
The fear of speaking out against the prevailing consensus in think tanks can lead to a dangerous echo chamber, where innovative and critical thinking is stifled. Researchers and analysts may fear professional repercussions or loss of funding if their findings contradict the dominant narrative. This is akin to the townspeople in Andersen's tale, who dared not admit they couldn't see the clothes for fear of being seen as unfit or foolish.
The child's brave proclamation in the story underscores the essential role of independent, critical voices in policy-making. Just as the child's honesty shattered the collective delusion, independent researchers, journalists, and whistleblowers are crucial in scrutinizing and validating the work produced by think tanks. These voices ensure that policy recommendations are based on solid evidence rather than ideological or financial biases.
Ultimately, the emperor's continued parade, even after being exposed, is a stark reminder of the need for accountability and transparency. When think tanks obscure their funding sources or fail to transparently communicate their methodologies, public trust is eroded, and the resultant policies may not serve the public interest. In essence, Andersen's story is a poignant reminder of the value of honesty, transparency, and critical thinking, principles that are essential for think tanks to maintain their credibility and effectively influence public policy.
Deafening Silence
In the context of Malaysia, the deafening silence of publicly funded think tanks on the issue of premature deindustrialization is both striking and concerning. Premature deindustrialization refers to the phenomenon where a country begins to deindustrialize – shifting away from manufacturing – at a much lower level of income and development compared to historical norms. This is particularly problematic for developing nations like Malaysia, where manufacturing has traditionally been a vital driver of economic growth, job creation, and technological advancement.
Publicly funded think tanks in Malaysia, which are supposed to be at the forefront of policy research and advocacy, have been conspicuously quiet on this issue. This silence is troubling because these institutions are expected to provide informed analysis and recommendations to guide national policy. Their reticence can be attributed to several factors, including potential political pressures, ideological biases, or a lack of critical engagement with the realities on the ground.
In Malaysia, the shift away from manufacturing has occurred before the country has fully reaped the benefits of industrialization, such as a robust middle class, diversified economy, and high levels of technological innovation. This premature deindustrialization threatens to stall economic progress and exacerbate socio-economic inequalities. Without a strong manufacturing base, Malaysia risks becoming overly reliant on services and low-value sectors, which may not provide sustainable long-term growth or sufficient high-quality employment opportunities.
The role of think tanks is crucial in addressing such challenges. These institutions should be leading the conversation on how to reverse or mitigate the effects of premature deindustrialization. They should be analyzing data, comparing international case studies, and proposing actionable strategies to revitalize Malaysia's manufacturing sector. This includes advocating for policies that enhance industrial competitiveness, invest in technology and innovation, and provide support for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
Moreover, think tanks need to push for a more nuanced understanding of the global economic environment, recognizing that globalization and technological advancements have transformed the industrial landscape. Malaysia's strategy must adapt to these changes, seeking to integrate into global value chains and capitalize on emerging opportunities in high-tech and green industries.
The current silence of publicly funded think tanks on this critical issue is akin to the collective delusion depicted in Andersen's "The Emperor's New Clothes." Just as the townspeople pretended to see the emperor's invisible garments, think tanks may be avoiding the uncomfortable truth of Malaysia's economic vulnerabilities. However, just as the child's honesty ultimately revealed the emperor's folly, it is imperative for independent voices within and outside these institutions to speak up. They must challenge the status quo, demand transparency, and advocate for evidence-based policies that address the root causes of premature deindustrialization.
In a nutshell, the silence of publicly funded think tanks in Malaysia on premature deindustrialization is a significant oversight that needs to be addressed. These institutions have a critical role in shaping national policy and must rise to the occasion by providing the necessary insights and recommendations to guide Malaysia towards a more sustainable and equitable economic future.
Aging Society
Malaysia is on the cusp of a profound demographic shift, steadily transitioning into an aging society with all the challenges and opportunities that come with it. As life expectancy continues to rise, thanks to advancements in healthcare and better living conditions, Malaysians are living longer than ever before. But with a declining fertility rate, the balance is tilting, leading to a shrinking pool of younger people and a growing elderly population. By 2030, Malaysia is projected to join the ranks of "aged societies," with over 15% of its population aged 60 and above.
This demographic evolution is not just a matter of numbers—it carries significant economic and social implications. The healthcare system will face increasing strain as the demand for chronic disease management and geriatric care surges. At the same time, the pension and social security systems will come under pressure as more people retire and live longer, potentially stretching these safety nets thin. With fewer working-age individuals to drive economic growth, Malaysia could see a slowdown unless it finds ways to boost productivity or adapt its labor market.
Moreover, this aging trend will reshape social and family dynamics. Traditional support systems may weaken as families have fewer children to care for aging parents, placing a greater burden on formal elder care services. To navigate these changes, Malaysia will need to rethink its policies across the board—from healthcare and pensions to labor and social welfare—to ensure they align with the realities of an aging society. The key will be proactive, forward-thinking strategies that turn this demographic challenge into an opportunity for innovation and sustainable growth.
Of Fairytales and Think Tanks
"Of Fairytales and Think Tanks" takes on a particularly poignant relevance when viewed through the lens of Malaysia's aging society. As the nation faces the inexorable shift towards an older population, the role of think tanks becomes critical in shaping policies that are both realistic and forward-thinking. Yet, just as in Hans Christian Andersen's tale "The Emperor's New Clothes," there is a danger that think tanks, much like the emperor's courtiers, might become ensnared in narratives that are disconnected from the practical realities of an aging nation.
Malaysia's demographic shift is not a distant possibility; it's a pressing reality. This transition brings with it a host of challenges—from increased healthcare demands to pressures on pension systems, to the need for robust elder care services. The fairy tale here would be to believe that Malaysia can navigate this complex terrain without significant policy innovation or by relying on outdated strategies that no longer fit the nation's demographic profile.
Think tanks in Malaysia must avoid the trap of proposing solutions that are as impractical as the emperor's invisible clothes. It is easy to get lost in grand, idealistic visions or to offer proposals that sound appealing on the surface but lack the rigor needed to address the deep-seated issues of an aging society. For instance, pushing for simplistic fixes or underestimating the profound economic and social implications of an aging population could leave Malaysia ill-prepared for the challenges ahead.
In the realm of public policy, the role of think tanks should be to act as the child in Andersen's story—the one who calls out the uncomfortable truths. They must rigorously analyze the demographic data, anticipate the future needs of an aging society, and craft policies that are grounded in reality, not fantasy. This means acknowledging the strain that an aging population will place on Malaysia's healthcare system, the need for sustainable pension reforms, and the importance of creating an economy that can adapt to a shrinking workforce.
"Of Fairytales and Think Tanks" thus serves as a reminder of the need for honesty, transparency, and critical thinking in policy-making. Just as the child's revelation in "The Emperor's New Clothes" underscores the power of truth, so too must think tanks strive to illuminate the path forward with clear, evidence-based guidance, unafraid to dispel illusions and confront uncomfortable realities.
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Economist Samirul Ariff Othman is an international relations analyst and a senior consultant with Global Asia Consulting (GAC). Samirul has a background as a senior researcher at the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research. The viewpoints articulated are solely those of the author.