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Index may correct oversold imbalance

ANOTHER round of follow-through consolidations set the market undertone for the week ending yesterday. The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) continued to drift lower before closing at 1,849.49 points.

The index hit its intra-week high of 1,856.16 on Monday before consolidating to its intra-week low of 1,836.50 points, with an intra-week trading range of 19.66 points.

Share prices on the local bourse continued to consolidate further on two of the four days under review.

The FBM KLCI registered another week-on-week loss of 0.33 per cent.

The index registered a week-on-week loss of 6.15 points over the last four trading days with 16 losers and 12 gainers.

It opened marginally lower at 1,853.14 points on Monday before hitting its intra-week low of 1,836.50 and ended the week lower at 1,849.49 yesterday.

In New York, share prices on the Wall Street resumed their prior technical rebounds over the last four trading days. It stayed above its major psychological support of 17,000 points on Thursday and closed at 17,265.99 points, with a week-to-date gain of 1.64 per cent.

Meanwhile, the FBM KLCI staged another technical pullback over two of the last four trading days. it registered a week-on-week loss of 0.33 per cent, to close at 1,849.49 points yesterday.

The FBM Small Cap Index lost 0.57 per cent to close higher at 18,716.49 points, while the FBM ACE Index ended higher at 7,255.61 points yesterday, giving a week-on-week gain of 1.08 per cent yesterday.

Below are the readings of some of the FBM KLCI’s technical indicators:

Moving Averages: The FBM
KLCI stayed below all its 10-, 20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages yesterday.

Momentum Index: Its short-term momentum index stayed below the support of its neutral reference line.

On Balance Volume (OBV): Its short-term OBV trend stayed below the support of its 10-day exponential moving averages.

Relative Strength
Index (RSI): Its 14-day RSI stood at 39.52 per cent yesterday.

Outlook

The FBM KLCI hit its
intra-week low of 1,836.50 on Monday, staging a successful re-test of this column’s envisaged support zone of between 1,820 and 1,850 points.

Subsequent technical rebounds sent the FBM KLCI to its intra-week high of 1,856.16, thereby failing in its bid to stage a re-challenge of this column’s envisaged resistance zone between 1,860 and 1,885 points.

IHH Healthcare Bhd remained the week’s top performer with a year-to-date gain of 32.12 per cent.

Continuing follow-through consolidations on Bursa Malaysia sent the FBM KLCI’s weekly price chart drifting to lower levels, staying right below its intermediate-term uptrend support (See FBM KLCI’s weekly chart — A1:A2) for the eighth consecutive week yesterday.

Chartwise, the index continued to drift to its third downside trendline support (See FBM KLCI’s daily chart — B5:B6) on three of its four trading-day week. It continued to stay below its intermediate-term downtrend (B7:B8) yesterday.

The FBM KLCI's daily, weekly and monthly fast MACDs stayed below their respective slow MACDs on Monday.

From its market behaviour over the last four trading days, the index may now set to stage a follow-through technical rebound to correct its oversold imbalance. It is ready to overcome its intermediate term downtrend resistance (B7:B8) sometime next week.

Next week, the FBM KLCI’s envisaged resistance zone is likely to be between 1,853 and 1,880 points, while its immediate downside support is likely to be between 1,820 and 1,845 points.

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