AUNG San Suu Kyi has shown she is keen to become Myanmar’s next president. But, this is not possible for now. The law stands against a person with foreign children, and Suu Kyi has an English son. If the restriction is lifted, then, she can be voted in. But the armed forces, which get 25 per cent of the seats, are opposed to any constitutional changes.
Jake Flanagan says: “Ms Suu Kyi is reticent (referring to her silence on minorities, especially the Rohingyas).” Nicholas Kristof, in his New York Times (NYT) column, observed that: “It seems as though she aspires to become president of Myanmar. Speaking up for the minority could be fatal to her prospects. The moral giant has become a calculating politician.”
I had spoken to her adviser on legal affairs, senior lawyer Robert Pe, at our arbitration meeting in Seoul, South Korea. He is in Myanmar to guide her on constitutional changes and law reforms. I suggested to him that a few reasonable internationally accepted words in favour of the minorities and the Rohingyas could gain her global significance.
Pe was kind to respond: “Daw Suu has to walk a tightrope on this issue. The international media criticise her for being ‘silent’ (which is incorrect), whereas elements in Myanmar characterise her as a ‘Muslim lover’ (for not defending the Buddhist faith).” (Pe’s address of “Daw” shows his respect for her as an auntie or mature woman, and she is in a senior position).
He added: “It is sad to see someone of such moral courage being undermined in this way. If she actually gets in government, she will be in a position to develop, execute solution and contribute to Myanmar and its people for the better.”
Currently, most Myanmars think that “the government may change in November this year, but it will remain the same”. This perception can be erased if the elected president and members of parliament can set out Myanmar to be inclusive.
The November election will be the most important election in history. The country will choose representatives for the National Parliament, Upper and Lower Houses, and Assemblies in the 14 states and regions.
The International Crisis Group cautioned that “it is not just to restore order, but to build better ethnic relations in the process”. The IBA Global Insight has written on “Beyond Yangon” in March.
President Thein Sein came to power in March 2011. He was coy when asked if he would stand for the presidency. He merely said: “It all depends on the people.” He is from a poor but respected family in Kyonku. Some describe him as “less ruthless than the other generals, and possesses sincerity and humility”.
I often wondered how a junta top gun could be blessed in history as “the man who led ‘irreversible change’ in Myanmar”. I might add, “for the better”. Though there is faltering support from Japan, and United States President Barack Obama says the Myanmar political reform “is incomplete”, I am hopeful that former members of the junta and voters desire peace and an internationally recognised reputation.
I wonder no more. It was Cyclone Nargis that triggered Sein’s karma to arrange a transition to give the vote and allow the people to decide their fate. NYT’s Thomas Fuller reported that this happened “when he witnessed the countryside flattened and rivers clogged with bloated bodies”. U Thin Maung Thann, a close adviser, explained: “It made him realise the limitations of the old regime.”
So far, he has achieved much for Myanmar, and can do more. But, the stumbling block will be his unfinished business of reconciliation between Myanmar Buddhists and others who are eligible for citizenship, like the minority Christians, tribes and Rohingyas.
House Speaker Shwe Mann will also contest. Like Sein, he is from the junta. He was commander of the LID.66, or Light Infantry Division 66, and earned the title of “Thura” (Brave Hero) for his military campaigns against the Karen. Together with Sein, he is a key architect of recent reforms.
He travels to foreign lands to meet and talk to their leaders, and listen to views from abroad. He participated in the 8th Asia-Europe Parliamentary Partnership Meeting in Rome late last year. He met Chinese President Xi Jinping en route to the US.
He spoke at Carnegie’s Asia Programme. This was supported by the Southeast Asia Studies Department of Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.
Mann was asked if he accepted Suu Kyi in the presidential race. His charming response was: “She is my good friend and we can be good competitors. I am ready to cooperate with Suu Kyi for the good of the country.”
As I was about to finish this article, I received news on Thursday that Mann had been purged and replaced by U Htay Oo in an internal coup. The party’s secretary-general, Maung Maung Thein, was also replaced by a close aide of the current president.
(According to foreign news wires, Mann’s relationship with Suu Kyi was regarded with suspicion among some party members as he had backed her campaign to change the Constitution, and it was one of the motives for his sacking).
One strong point in favour of the new chairman, Oo, is his readiness to support China’s “Belt and Road” initiative. China has been Myanmar’s close business friend and can pour investments into Myanmar. The Americans and other Western commercial giants are watching to see if they can believe in the “New” Myanmar or withhold their investments.
I trust that I have provided the pointers to each personality, so that readers can assess what can be expected and predict the outcome.
The writer is a former judge of the High Courts of Borneo and Malaya
Tomorrow: Myanmar has suffered, but it can change its luck