The Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan’s ruling party, fearful of a disastrous outcome at the presidential and legislative elections in January, finally took the plunge and replaced its original presidential candidate, Hung Hsiu-chu, with party chairman Eric Chu, mayor of New Taipei City.
This is unlikely to prevent the election of Tsai Ing-wen, a candidate of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), leading to Taiwan’s first woman president. But, it may limit the loss of seats in the parliament, known as the Legislative Yuan. Even during 2000 to 2008, when Chen Shui-bian of the DPP was president, KMT controlled the legislature so DPP did not have full control of the government.
A recent poll showed Tsai with more than a 20-point lead. Hung, the deputy legislative speaker, born in Taiwan of mainland parents, shocked many by advocating unification with the mainland.
A KMT-sponsored poll early this month put Hung’s support level at 13 per cent, leading to calls for her replacement. At the party congress on Oct 17, more than 90 per cent of delegates voted to replace her.
Ironically, Tsai, the opposition candidate, has in effect endorsed President Ma Ying-jeou’s policy of cooperation with the mainland by announcing that her cross-strait policy would be one of maintaining the status quo.
She has moved so far toward the centre that, on Oct 10, for the first time, the DPP leader actually attended National Day celebrations presided over by Ma and even sang the national anthem, although noticeably keeping her mouth closed at certain times.
This is understandable because the anthem is a relic of the KMT’s authoritarian past, where party and government were indistinguishable, and the lyrics at one point refer to “our party”, meaning the KMT. But because of Taiwan’s unique political situation, it is difficult to imagine the adoption of new lyrics for the anthem, even if Tsai is elected president with a parliamentary majority.
With less than three months to go before the Jan 16 election, Chu faces a daunting challenge to catch up with the clear front runner. The KMT has not fared well in the eight years of Ma’s presidency, with the cross-strait relationship standing out as the president’s only successful policy, albeit an important one.
So, Chu will challenge Tsai to debate the cross-strait issue and press her on the DPP’s stance on Taiwan’s independence, which is abhorrent to Beijing. Chu will also question her on Lee Teng-hui’s policy of a “state-to-state relationship” between Taiwan and China, known as the “two-states theory”. On her part, Tsai will try to say as little as possible since, at this point, the election is hers to lose.
KMT lost badly in local elections last November, with the DPP making major inroads into hitherto KMT bastions. Chu’s victory in New Taipei City was one of the party’s few bright spots. During the campaign, he promised to serve out his term. But, now that he is running for president, he has to break that promise. And, if he loses the election, he cannot go back to being the mayor.
Chu may well try to solicit American support for his candidacy. In 2012, Tsai lost to Ma in part because the Obama administration was not comfortable with her as Taiwan’s leader. This year, the United States has not taken sides, but Chu is likely to visit Washington soon, in part to raise his standing at home, and the American Institute in Taiwan had said he was welcome.
KMT’s top priority is to keep its majority in the Legislative Yuan. But given the extent of the defeat across Taiwan last year, this will not be easy.
So far, China has kept quiet about the Taiwan elections, as it has promised. No doubt, a pro-China candidate would be welcome, but not if this was going to be counterproductive. Beijing is more interested in the election of a new leader with whom it can work. Eric Chu, who met Chinese leader Xi Jinping last May, is someone acceptable to Beijing.
If Tsai wins, China will be wary of her every word and action. But there should not be a repetition of what transpired during the Chen Shui-bian era. China has developed a variety of ties with both the Taiwan government and its people over the last 15 years.
It will try to get Tsai to pay lip service to a nebulous “one China”, but it should also have learned that threats have the effect of driving Taiwan’s people away and greater sophistication is necessary.
The writer is a Hong Kong-based journalist who opened ‘The Wall Street Journal’ bureau in Beijing in 1979 when the US and China established diplomatic relations