KUALA LUMPUR: Asian exports do not rely heavily on UK demand hence the direct impact on the regional economies ex-Japan would likely be small in the event of a possible exit from the EU, says Credit Suisse.
Millions in the UK go to the referendum polls in two hours' time at 2pm (Malaysian time) today and the results are expected to be released between 10.30am and noon tomorrow.
Credit Suisse said of the Asian economies, Singapore, Hong Kong and Vietnam are relatively more exposed.
Singapore's exports to the UK account for around 2 per cent of GDP, materially higher than in other economies in the region.
In Hong Kong and Singapore, the main exports to the UK are services, whereas in Vietnam's case merchandise shipments are more predominant.
"Commodity-related sectors and business processing exports could be more vulnerable," said economists Dr Santitarn Sathirathai and Michael Wan, in an earlier report.
Agricultural and processed food are exported from Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam while mining products (Malaysia and Vietnam).
In Singapore, Hong Kong and India, business process outsourcing, IT services and professional service exports also represent significant parts of their exports to the UK.
"The macro impact could be larger were Brexit to also negatively affect the EU economy."
In this scenario, the effect on Asian economies' exports could be 2-3 times larger than that of an isolated UK downturn, with Singapore and Vietnam standing out as possibly the most vulnerable with shares of exports to the EU as high as 6 to 7 per cent of GDP.
Capital flows could be disrupted, but this would be unlikely to change Asian central banks' policy stances.
Malaysia's short-term portfolio inflows would likely be affected especially in bonds and equities, while Indonesia could be affected mainly in bonds and Taiwan, mainly equities.
"Even in these cases, however, we doubt the potential currency moves would be sufficient to trigger the central banks to change their easing bias."