KUALA LUMPUR: A political analyst has predicted that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak would lead Barisan Nasional (BN) to a comfortable win in the next general election.
James Chin of the University of Tasmania's Asia Institute said 2017 could not have been a better year politically for Najib.
He said on the surface, Najib appeared to be in political trouble with the 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MBD) issue and former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohammad leading the new Pakatan Harapan (PH) opposition coalition.
However, in reality, he said Najib could not be politically safer.
“With a general election due early next year, he is in a solid position to be re-elected,” he said.
Noting that under the leadership of Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang, Pas had refused to join PH due to “the omnipresent influence of the DAP.”
He said Hadi was also personally disgusted with Dr Mahathir for successfully oppressing PAS’s political agenda when the latter was in power.
Chin said it was impossible to win a general election in Malaysia without winning a large proportion of Malay seats, and with the opposition vote split between PAS and PH, Umno would win the bulk of the Malay seats and therefore win the general election.
“Najib is so confident of this strategy that he has told his inner circles that Umno is aiming to take 140–160 seats in the 222-seat parliament.
By contrast, without the powers of patronage and the government machinery, Dr Mahathir is finding it increasingly difficult to influence the electorate.
“Dr Mahathir’s problem is his strongman legacy. Many in the middle-class and the opposition want him to apologise for human rights abuses during his 22 years in power, including the jailing of opposition leaders under the infamous Internal Security Act,” he said, adding that Dr Mahathir had steadfastly refused to do so and merely said he ‘regrets’ some of his actions.
Chin said there was also a sense among urban voters that Dr Mahathir could not be trusted and was only using the opposition to capture power.
“Some fear that once in power, he will revert back to his authoritarian ways.
“Hence, there is a real danger that educated, urban voters will protest Dr Mahathir’s recalcitrance by simply staying at home during the general election rather than voting for the opposition, which indirectly helps Najib.”
Chin noted that the 1MDB issue also did not appear to have gained political traction. He said despite the best efforts of the opposition, Najib managed to meet US President Donald Trump in the White House.
Immediately after Washington, Najib flew to London to meet British Prime Minister Theresa May.
“The photo ops with Trump and May effectively numbed the opposition’s propaganda campaigns in Malay rural areas. Najib also blunted the opposition’s claim that Saudi Arabia was unhappy with Najib for implicating the Saudis in 1MDB by hosting King Salman in Malaysia.
“Najib even took King Salman’s first selfie and the Saudis promised investments in Malaysia worth US$7 billion.”
On the economic front, Chin said Najib had cleverly used the 2018 budget to channel aid to more than seven million Malaysians in the bottom 40 per cent of the population using cash transfers and individual tax cuts.
The 1.5 million-strong civil service will get additional days off, unrecorded leave for umrah pilgrimage and easier promotions.
“By the end of the year, Najib will be politically stronger.
“His has effectively blindsided Dr Mahathir and PH, and the 1MBD corruption allegations are by and large considered ‘old news’ by the all-important rural Malay electorate.