THE verdict will finally be out tonight on who can stake a claim as the people's top choice as voters in Kedah, Penang, Kelantan, Negri Sembilan, Selangor and Terengganu finally head out today to decide which coalition or pact should govern their respective states.
A total of 9,773,571 eligible voters are set to cast their ballots for the six states' elections, with 9,674,456 ordinary registered voters, 49,660 soldiers and their spouses, 47,728 police and their spouses, and 1,727 Malaysians who had registered as absent overseas voters
A total of 245 state seats will be contested, including 36 in Kedah, Kelantan (45), Terengganu (32), Penang (40), Selangor (56) and Negri Sembilan (36).
With the campaigning period for state polls ending at midnight yesterday, the entire country is anxiously waiting to see the outcome of the polls after Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) candidates had battled it out in what has turned out to be a most tense election.
In what could be a win-win formula to strengthen the federal administration, PH this time around is cooperating with its longtime rival-turned-unity government-counterpart, Barisan Nasional (BN), in the hope of achieving a clean sweep in all six states.
PN, meanwhile, is banking on the so-called "green wave" in its quest to wrest the stronghold of its opponents in Penang, Selangor and Negri Sembilan, while retaining Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
Analysts, however, believe that none of the coalitions would have a landslide victory in all six states.
Instead, pollsters said it was likely the respective parties would only be able to maintain a status quo in all six states — with a slim number of seats changing hands, if any.
While the cooperation between PH and BN could easily gain them an easy two-thirds majority win, analysts said PN's green wave could not be taken lightly.
In Kedah, it is expected that there will be a close fight but it remains to be seen if PH can make any headway following the colourful antics of caretaker Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor in the run-up to the polls.
Geostrategist and senior fellow with the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, Dr Azmi Hassan, said while PN was expected to continue to retain its strong grip in the state, non-Malay voters might be "put off" by remarks made by the former Jeneri assemblyman.
"Sanusi's popularity in Kedah is mostly derived from his core supporters. The non-Malays and fence-sitters there, however, might be disheartened by his controversies lately, and this is a strong reason why Kedah is up for grabs," he told the New Straits Times.
Similarly, the same scenario is expected to happen in Terengganu, where there is a chance that the PH-BN pact might edge out its opponents in seats which Pas previously won with a slim majority.
Fellow at the Institution of Malay Rulers Chair, Mujibu Abdul Muis, said while Terengganu might remain under Pas, the party must work hard to defend some of the seats, including Bukit Besi, Kuala Besut and Batu Rakit, all of which were secured with a slim majority in the last election.
In Kelantan, if anything, the results of the 15th General Election are a clear indication that Pas would have it easy defending the state. The Islamist party romped to a landslide victory in GE15, where it secured all 14 parliamentary seats in the state.
Despite a huge allocation of RM1.7 billion given by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim for the Kelantan administration to resolve the water issue, sources on the ground said it would be a tough road ahead for the PH-BN pact to win, or even crack some holes in any of the state seats.
Sources highlighted that the play on the water supply issue in Kelantan was no longer relevant as it had been politicised by all quarters for decades, including during incarcerated prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's administration in 2013.
In Penang, analysts believe that the abrupt departure of former three-term Perai assemblyman Dr P. Ramasamy from DAP will not change the overall picture of DAP retaining the state.
Professor James Chin from the University of Tasmania's Asia Institute said despite dissatisfaction voiced by some in the Indian community there, the group was more afraid of Pas and the spectre of what it could do to the non-Malays in the state.
"Ramasamy's departure will have a limited impact on the Indian voters as their attitude is very similar to the Chinese... they are more afraid of what Pas can do to the non-Malays. Ramasamy's departure will not make a change in the overall picture."
In Selangor, a fierce battle is expected in some seats following unhappiness among hardcore supporters with PH's decision to cooperate with BN in forming the unity government.
Analysts believe PN may be able to make inroads in northern Selangor, a view also prescribed by former Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin, who reckoned that PH would wrest the urban seats but may face a tough fight in the northern areas.
Negri Sembilan, where the local community's livelihood is influenced by the Adat Perpatih customary laws and practices, is likely to be in favour of parties in the unity government.
In the state, PN has been pushing for a narrative that the coalition is capable of creating an upset by slashing PH's five-year rule and BN's nearly six-decade dominance on the state by capitalising on the alleged "wave of discontent" towards Umno that emerged during GE15.
The so-called wave, however, may not have reached Negri Sembilan and the coalition is just relying on false hopes. This could be seen from the GE15 results where Pas and its partners in PN failed to win any of the eight parliamentary seats in the election held in November last year.