THE Semenyih by-election results is, to a certain extent, far from astonishing.
At 9.20pm, the official results announced by Datuk Mohd Sayuthi Bakar showed that PH had lost to Barisan Nasional by narrow 1,914 vote majority, while Parti Sosialis Malaysia's Nik Aziz Afiq Abdul and independent candidate Kuan Chee Heng respectively polled 847 and 725 votes.
PH's Muhammad Aiman Zainali polled 17,866 while BN's Zakaria Hanafi won 19,780.
It was expected to say the least; despite Pakatan Harapan's homeground machinery advantage and prowess, its campaign left much to be desired.
Right from the start, the nomination of Muhammad Aiman as the ruling party's candidate is seen as a political faux pas when the 30-year old did not strike voters as a charismatic individual.
While Muhammad Aiman is known to be a soft spoken man with good-natured disposition, he failed to convince the electorate as a people's representative.
For instance, the issue surrounding the need for a new hospital in Semenyih smacks of a bureaucratic, political putter which is a turn off for the locals.
PH too, had poised itself in a defensive mode when confronted with issues pertaining to unfulfilled manifesto, such as the increase in prices of goods, as well as the collection of toll.
Worse, PH leaders seem to be distracted by Datuk Seri Najib Razak's "bossku" campaign and Pas' RM90 million fiasco as heard in their nightly speeches made, which unwittingly, strayed the coalition's focus from addressing local issues.
While PH lost by a small margin, it has failed to grasp the local sentiment and capture the aspirations of the electorate there, who are largely from the Malay community at about 70 per cent.
Analyst Professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said PH had overlooked the need for discussion on relatable national issues, such as trimming of civil servants and reduction of budget for rural development.
"This has given a cause for many Malay electorate to rally in protest of PH, driven by the narrative on Malay Muslim solidarity."
He also attributed the results as a culmination of protests votes by Pas supporters who were dismayed by PH's unrelenting attacks against its president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang.
"Based on the grassroots sentiment, Pas supporters were furious when their leaders were mocked and insulted over the RM90 million controversy.
"Hence, some Pas members did not mind wearing BN uniforms during campaign rounds against a common enemy, which is PH."
Voters who picked BN were largely influenced by a consistent campaigning agenda to discredit the government's ability to fulfil its manifesto.
BN leaders were undeviating their attacks, and used every card, be them race, religion and economic conditions to run down its competitor.
Their choice of candidate, Zakaria, 58, is said to be strategically sound due to his age factor and elderly maturity.
As 70 per cent of the voters in Semenyih are said to be above 50 years old, and it is considered to be an "endearment" factor worth studied upon.
"Issues relating to ethnicity, religion and national policies might have shaped voting patterns.
"The BN candidate is seen to be devoid of issues, and appear to be close to the voters," analyst Professor Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said.
Yes, it is true that the by-election is not a game changer in terms of political status quo; neither federal nor state will be significantly affected by the people's choice yesterday.
But PH's morale has taken a beating that needs to the thoroughly reviewed.
A post mortem on its defeat will need to be studied seriously; it is too early for the party to field “tree stumps” or local political colloquial "tunggul", as its candidates.
And it is morale victory for BN as it prepares for the Rantau by-election soon.
"We can't take this as a referendum (against the government) but for PH to come out from its comfort zone.
"For BN, it will give them moral legitimacy. Regaining the swing or protest votes given to PH during the 14th general election, coupled with the
ones delivered by Pas, has given BN an edge over PH.
"The war for the Malay support will continue, and PH should review this matter as one of the main reasons behind their defeat," Sivamurugan said.
The Semenyih seat fell vacant following the death of assemblyman Bakhtiar Mohd Nor on Jan 11 from a heart attack. He was 57.
In the 14th General Election, Bakhtiar defeated candidates from BN, Pas and PSM in a four-cornered fight, with a majority of 8,964 votes. He garnered 23,428 votes.
The electoral roll for the by-election, which is from the third quarter of 2018, lists 53,411 voters, comprising 53,520 ordinary and 109 absentee voters.