KUALA SELANGOR: Kuala Selangor is shaping up to be one of the fiercest battlegrounds in the 15th General Election, with a four-way fight involving a former minister and a caretaker minister.
The contest between Barisan Nasional's Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz, the caretaker finance minister, and Pakatan Harapan's Datuk Seri Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad, a former health minister, is set to grab the lime light.
Others in the running are Perikatan Nasional's Ustaz Mohd Noor Mohd Sahar and Parti Pejuang Tanah Air's Mohd Shaid Rosli.
Analyst Dr Nik Ahmad Kamal Nik Mahmood dubbed the seat as "tricky", citing Dzulkefly's spotty electoral performance in the constituency.
"Malays account for 60 per cent of the electorate. There will be a split in the Malay vote, but in whose favour, we cannot yet tell."
Dzulkefly, the immediate past MP of Kuala Selangor, first won the seat in 2008, beating BN candidate Datuk Jahaya Ibrahim with 862 votes.
However, in 2013, the Rembau-born toxicologist lost the seat by a slim 460 votes against BN candidate Datuk Seri Irmohizam Ibrahim.
Dzulkefly avenged that reversal in 2018 with thumping 8,498-vote majority over Irmohizam and Pas candidate Fakaruddin Ismail.
Nik Ahmad Kamal said that the odds were slightly in Dr Dzulkefly's favour due to his personality, 14-year service in the area, and performance as a lawmaker when Covid-19 was a major threat to the district and nation.
However, he said Tengku Zafrul, 49, could spring a surprise victory.
"He has to roll up his sleeves and show people that he can lift them from their economic hardship.
"He is a gentleman like Dzulkefly, but for good or bad, he has been marked as a 'kayangan' (scoial elite). So this can be where he can show himself as a leader who can work with the people to bring much needed change. He also has to prove that he can inject investments and jobs into the area."
Nik Ahmad Kamal said the ex-banker could capitalise on the declining welfare aid to the tune of Bantuan Rakyat 1Malaysia under Pakatan Harapan and explain national plans to raise the living standards of the poor which have increased in numbers during the Covid-19 pandemic.
"All in all, Tengku Zafrul's job is tough, but he is still a flag bearer for fresh BN candidates, who are doing battle in extremely difficult constituencies.
"His is definitely a harder fight than Sungai Buloh because unlike (BN candidate) Khairy(Jamaluddin), he is a newcomer in politics. But we cannot count him out."
He said the likelihood of Umno and BN grassroots opting not to vote, in protest over Selangor BN chairman Tan Sri Noh Omar being dropped as candidate for Tanjung Karang was high and could cost Tengku Zafrul a few hundred votes.
"So his swing (in votes) would likely come from the Indians, who make up around 20 per cent of the electorate ,or even the Chinese, who account for 10 per cent of voters."
Election Commission data show there are 102,951 voters in Kuala Selangor.
Seven of them are overseas voters, 391 are police personnel and their spouses, and the rest are regular voters. Women make up 50.54 per cent of the electorate.
Those aged between 21 and 59 account for 77.53 per cent of the electorate, 14.49 per cent are older than 60 and 7.98 per cent are those aged 18 to 20.