NIBONG TEBAL: TODAY marks a big day for the people of Sungai Bakap, with 39,151 registered voters expected to exercise their right to vote in their next assemblyman.
The by-election is seen as a popularity test between the country's two largest political coalitions, the unity government — comprising Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) — and Perikatan Nasional (PN).
A win for PN means status quo for the constituency while a win for PH will be seen as an endorsement of support for the unity government in Penang.
The opposition secured 11 of the 40 state seats in the state election last year. Both sides are equally confident of emerging victorious.
Surveys by PKR and Darul Ehsan Institute (IDE) have suggested that PH might well be on its way to wresting the seat back from PN, which it lost in the state election last August.
PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli had said Sungai Bakap's Malay voters were increasingly showing support for the unity government.
He said based on the party's survey, only 48 per cent of Malays in the constituency supported PN, a drop from the last state election, where about 77 per cent of them backed it.
IDE chairman Mohammad Redzuan Othman said that while its survey suggested greater support for PH, it would not necessarily translate into a win for PH candidate Dr Joohari Ariffin.
IDE's reservations could be well-founded.
It was standing room only at PN's 'Ceramah Mega' grand finale in Sungai Duri on Thursday, which saw speeches from top opposition leaders like PN chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Pas president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang.
Sungai Duri was chosen for the finale as it was home to PN candidate Abidin Ismail, who is locked in a straight fight with Joohari for the semi-urban Malay-majority seat.
Sungai Bakap had been BN's stronghold since the 1974 state election, before PH captured the state seat in the 2008 general election.
In last August's state polls, PKR's Nurhidayah Che Rose lost the seat to Pas' Nor Zamri Latiff with a 1,563 vote-majority.
Zamri's death on May 24 triggered the by-election.
Over the past two weeks, both candidates have been busy traversing the constituency to capture the hearts of voters via their respective manifestos, with Joohari's Padu, coined from the root word perPADUan (unity), and Abidin's from the word KERJA (work).
While Joohari's campaign approach appeared more visible, Abidin's campaign team preferred to move in smaller groups, many times shying away from the media.
Joohari had received the full backing of the unity government's top leadership. BN chairman Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who is also Umno president and deputy prime minister, spent two consecutive days this week campaigning for him.
Other heavyweights included PH and PKR secretary-general Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution Ismail, Rafizi, PKR Women's wing chief Fadhlina Sidek, BN secretary-general Datuk Seri Dr Zambry Abd Kadir, Umno supreme council member Datuk Seri Ahmad Maslan and Parti Amanah Negara president Datuk Seri Mohamad Sabu.
Abidin's campaign got off to a disastrous start when Pas deputy president Datuk Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man, during the candidacy announcement, mistakenly said Abidin held an ISO14001-2015 certification.
PN later admitted to the mistake, but it provided enough ammo for the unity government election machinery to capitalise on.
While Abidin's ground campaign appeared limited, he had focused his messaging mostly on social media, particularly TikTok.
Observers believe that the outcome is a difficult one to call, and that whoever wins, the majority will be marginal.
Based on ground sentiment, PH has the support of the older generation, while the younger generation is more inclined to PN.
Over the past two weeks, the PH campaign had to fend off attacks on federal policies, especially on managing the cost of living.
State PH leaders also had to tackle criticism of a six-year-long water supply disruption to several parts of Sungai Bakap, high water bills, traffic congestion and other issues.
While these issues appear to back PN's bid to be seen as a check and balance in the state, it remains to be seen if PH's explanations and solutions are solid enough to convince the voters.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst, Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, said the outcome would largely hinge on voter turnout.
All ethnic groups, he said, were possible "kingmakers" — PN was hoping for support from the Malay majority whereas PH wants a high voter turnout from the almost 40 per cent non-Malays, who it believes will continue to support them.
On the candidates chances, he said it was 50-50.
Abidin, he said, was more well-known as he was an aide to Zamri. However, PH's ground campaign had been aggressive in getting Joohari, who was previously an educator, in the public eye.
The Sungai Bakap election is the eighth by-election held after the 15th General Election in 2022.
It has 65 voting streams, namely Padang Lalang, Puteri Gunong, Tasek Junjong, Sungai Duri, Sungai Bakap, Ladang Sempah, Sungai Kechil and Kampung Besar.
Puteri Gunong has the largest number of voters at 14,417 followed by Sungai Bakap (7,318 voters), Sungai Duri (5,745 voters), Padang Lalang (3,732 voters), Tasek Junjong (2,705 voters), Sungai Kechil (2,339 voters), Kampung Besar (1,641 voters) and Ladang Sempah (1,335 voters).
In the state election last year, PN took a majority of the votes in six out of the constituency's eight polling stations.
It secured the Malay-majority Sungai Duri by 1,940 votes, Padang Lalang (823 votes) and Kampung Besar (733 votes).
PH triumphed in the mixed-demographic Puteri Gunong with about 2,000 votes.
Women made up 51.77 per cent of the total voters and men 48.23 per cent. Young voters, aged between 18 and 40, made up more
than half of the total registered voters.