KUALA LUMPUR: Barisan Nasional's significant win in the Mahkota by-election, with a majority of over 20,000 votes, indicates that the party's base, particularly among Malay voters, remains solid and motivated.
Associate Professor Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya said a low overall turnout often benefits the party with the more organised and loyal voter base, and the coalition's machinery could have successfully mobilised its supporters, even in a relatively quiet by-election.
He, however, highlighted the low voter turnout rate of around 50 per cent suggesting a degree of voter apathy or disengagement in the by-election.
In terms of Chinese and Indian voter turnout, Awang Azman said the turnout rates among Chinese (32 per cent) and Indian (34 per cent) might be due to several factors.
"It's premature to label this as a full-scale boycott, but these figures could signal discontent or disenchantment with the options available, particularly Pakatan Harapan's alliance with BN.
"Historically, lower turnout among these communities during by-elections could be attributed to the perception that the outcome was already largely determined, reducing the perceived impact of their vote."
Other factors, Awang Azman said, could be due to the lack of enthusiasm and urban migration.
"Voter turnout in by-elections, especially in non-competitive seats, tends to be lower because voters may not perceive the election as crucial.
"Many voters, particularly in the Chinese and Indian communities, could be residing in major cities and might not see the urgency in returning to their hometown to vote.
"Work commitments, economic concerns, and a sense of political fatigue could have also played a role in keeping turnout low," he said.
Moreover, this indicates that BN's message of stability resonated more with their core supporters compared to PH's narrative, which might not have inspired the same urgency, he said.
Asked about the implications for PN-BN cooperation in the 16th general election, Awang Azman said the turnout rate in Mahkota, reflecting a broader national demographic, suggests a potential warning for PH.
"If PH continues its alliance with BN, it may face a backlash from non-Malay voters, who are traditionally seen as more supportive of PH.
"These voters may feel alienated by PH's cooperation with a party they associate with past governance issues.
"If PH does not address these concerns and fails to energise this voter bloc, it risks lower turnout or even a boycott in GE16."
Meanwhile, National Council of Professors fellow Professor Dr Azmi Hassan said the by-election results demonstrate that the cooperation between BN and PH is effective at both the state and federal levels.
"This is despite the fiasco of the Halal certification between BN/Umno and DAP, as well as the bickering between Datuk Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh, who is Umno Youth chief, and Teresa Kok, who is DAP vice president, as well as on protest vote by DAP supporters," he said, adding that the result also shows that Perikatan Nasional still doesn't have a strong foot in the state.
BN's Syed Hussien Syed Abdullah has secured 27,995 votes, while PN's Mohamad Haizan Jaafar garnered 7,347 votes.