IT IS not surprising, to say the least, that India is now in two minds after inviting United States President Donald Trump to be the guest-of-honour for the 2019 Republic Day spectacle in Delhi. The gargantuan and colourful Republic Day celebration — Indians like to compare it with France’s Bastille Day celebration — held annually on Jan 26, is a demonstration of national pride for Indians who, traditionally, showcase the nation’s cultural and ethnic diversity, accompanied by a show of military strength, before a foreign leader invited as the guest-of-honour.
No doubt, both India and the US are keen to forge closer ties with each other, but the Indians have become somewhat uneasy about the US president’s behaviour at the recent North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s summit in Brussels and, subsequently, as the guest of the British government.
Both his visits turned out to be diplomatic nightmares, not just for the hosts but also for American diplomats and officials, the silent Sherpas who labour hard to smoothen the path of presidential visits.
Though the phlegmatic Indian diplomats in the US have maintained a stoic silence over the president’s unpredictable behaviour, you hear people whispering at diplomatic gatherings and questioning the prudence of inviting and showering all the honours on a guest whose outbursts and unconventional style of communication could easily cause embarrassment to the host nation which is holding a general election in 2019 in what is veritably the world’s largest exercise in free voting.
Indeed, India’s Republic Day celebration in 2019 will be held amid the election fever. If the US president did agree to visit India as a guest-of-honour at the Republic Day celebrations — an invitation was extended to him nearly four months back through diplomatic channels but the White House has, so far, not accepted the invitation — it could give sleepless nights not just to American diplomats connected with organising the presidential visit but also to Indian politicians and officials who are not sure about what their guest might do or say during his visit.
Trump’s comments and antics both in Brussels and during the United Kingdom visit have shaken many. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will roll out not only the red carpet but spare no humanly possible effort to please Trump’s every whim — Indians generally have a positive view of Trump — Indian observers were not oblivious to the annoyance and embarrassment Trump’s remarks caused both in Brussels and in Britain humiliating, for example, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister Theresa May.
Merkel was already been snubbed in the past by Trump — one can recall their meeting last year in Washington where Merkel sat looking glum and perplexed at Trump who appeared to ignore the pleas of photographers to shake hands with the German chancellor — it was even more embarrassing for Prime Minister May who faced the ignominy of a cantankerous Trump criticising on British soil May’s Brexit strategy and even stating that former foreign secretary Boris Johnson, who had resigned a couple of days earlier in protest against May’s “soft Brexit”, would make a good prime minister. This comment was construed as a direct interference in the affairs of a country which prides itself for its “special relationship” with the US.
Just picture this: if Trump said something on those lines in India, suggesting that one of Modi’s cabinet members would make a good or better prime minister, the guest could cause a major political disruption in India, not to mention the ammunition this would provide to the oppositional Congress Party to fire at Modi.
There is no way to stop Trump from doing or saying what comes to his mind.
Despite his personal bonhomie with Modi during their meeting in Washington last year, Trump has been saying things that have not gone down well with Indians. While he has not personally criticised Modi so far and even underscored the importance of a strategic partnership with India, Trump has criticised India on several issues: trade surplus, employment visas issued to Indian professionals and experts, India’s arms purchases from Russia, oil imports from Iran, etc.
Washington also recently cancelled a scheduled “2+2” meeting — involving the foreign and defence ministers of both sides — unsettling the Indians about Washington’s intentions.
While the White House has not yet officially accepted India’s invitation, the Indian hosts might actually heave a sigh of relief if Trump’s visit was “postponed because of non-availability of dates”.
Perhaps, the 2020 Republic Day celebrations would be better suited to welcome the president with the 2019 elections out of the way. By then, the prime minister, whoever that is, would be better prepared to receiving the guest and also dealing with the latter’s mood swings. Modi can hardly afford to have a distraction during an election year with the world’s most powerful man making comments and smashing porcelain, possibly creating a negative impact in the emotionally charged environment that is emblematic of elections in the subcontinent.
For now, the ball is still in Trump’s court. He needs to make the next move.
Manik Mehta is a New York-based journalist with extensive writing experience on foreign affairs, diplomacy, global economics and international trade.