IF you are in Terengganu or Kelantan, you are most likely experiencing continuous rain. Rainy, cloudy and gloomy days will turn down the humidity a little as the atmosphere gives way to the cooler north-east monsoon air for the next two months.
But, this year will be different. Uncertainty of the extent of the monsoon rain with the onset of La Nina season makes this year's situation puzzling. We may have to prepare for possible floods while the Covid-19 pandemic already threatens us.
Annually, starting in November, the cold surge from the Asia mainland spreads into the north of the South China Sea and moves cold air and moisture towards the south. As the moisture reaches the southern part of the South China Sea, the east coast states at the forefront of our peninsula receive all the thick clouds. This atmospheric motion will start forming this month and last until March.
However, this rainy period spaces out into cold surge spells. The intensity of the rain, area affected and the number of surges varies from year to year, making prediction and understanding of the monsoon less straightforward. These changes happen because of many reasons. Scientists refer to this as climate variability.
My most leisurely observation of this is by looking at the rain's effect on the road to my housing area. The road will always be flooded during the monsoon, but I can tell that the monsoon is a lot drier for the last two years because I have less trouble cleaning my car tyres of mud.
Averaging rainfall data from MetMalaysia equates with my simple observation. Data from the Institute of Oceanography and Environment scientific ocean buoy floating off Terengganu waters also reflect the same. The El Nino event in the previous year seems to be the primary reason why the monsoon was drier in the past.
El Nino appears between two and seven years, forming warm conditions in the Pacific Ocean that bring warmer and drier weather conditions to Malaysia and the surrounding region. But this year, the opposite is happening. The other sibling, La Nina, is now hitting us.
La Nina brings more rain than usual and a more active monsoon in Southeast Asia. Stormy weather is a typical example of how much La Nina will affect our climate.
Although scientists can predict the presence of La Nina months ahead of time, the intensity can change, and we are not sure if it will become weaker or more robust as it moves into December.
Until now, we can only get an initial picture of what global weather could look like under La Nina's condition but not the detail of the rainfall intensity and how it will evolve.
Recent findings found La Nina had intensified by cooler temperature monsoon in South Asia. This could be related to reduced aerosols and greenhouse gases due to Covid-19 lockdowns across the globe. Whether this monsoon might turn out to be a strong one or not, it is the biggest concern as we approach the peak of the monsoon season.
Meanwhile, ways to cope with monsoon floods during this pandemic will be challenging. The approach, action and delivery might demand a departure from conventional methods. There are two significant factors; seasonal weather changes (temperature, humidity) and human behavioural patterns. The extreme monsoon event might be the last thing we wish for as it may worsen the pandemic spread.
It was a relief when the National Disaster Management Agency mentioned that it had prepared well for floods. It is essential to ensure that the preparation considers proper mobilisation that reflects practical standard operating procedures so that there will not be any increase in Covid-19 cases.
If La Nina turns out to be weaker by December, it will be a blessing in disguise as we can expect a mild monsoon, where a regular rainy season might help us stay at home longer.
The writer is associate professor, director of Institute of Oceanography and Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu