THE Afghan government's defeat to Taliban forces last month as the United States was withdrawing its military may not come as a shock to many. But the speed of the Taliban takeover of the country was unanticipated.
Clearly, the key factors were the incompetence and weakness of the previous Afghan government and its armed forces. There was no fighting spirit whatsoever within Afghan government forces. Their main motivation was money provided by the Americans. Once that was no longer available, their motivation to fight also disappeared.
Furthermore, the Taliban is actually more popular among ordinary Afghans, especially in rural areas. Many Afghans hate the Americans and the government which was seen as a puppet of the US. The hate was aroused by the brutalities committed by US forces against ordinary Afghans.
An article by anthropologist Nancy Lindisfarne and her colleague, Jonathan Neale, reveals in great detail the atrocities of the US forces, including how American troops routinely conducted night raids by breaking through doors and humiliating and intimidating families of ordinary Afghans. They will then detain the men for questioning. Torture was often used to extract information.
The problem was, many of the men had never been involved in fighting against the Americans. This resulted in resentment and anger, leading to more Afghans joining the Taliban and attacking the Americans in revenge.
The US military will retaliate in a more brutal manner, including carrying out airstrikes and bombing of villages, resulting in more deaths of innocent children, the elderly and women, thereby creating more resentment and anger.
Another factor that made many Afghans hate the American occupation is the great disparity in income it caused. It should be noted that more than 75 per cent of the government's income was from grants provided by the US government. Corrupt Afghan politicians and leaders siphoned off money to enrich themselves as half of the population live in poverty.
Although the Taliban has a reputation for being harsh and strict in their interpretation of syariah law, they have a good reputation of being free from corruption, cheating and abuse of power. This is very different from the reputation of government officials and judges in Kabul who could easily be bought with money.
The Taliban is also seen as the protector of the poor and oppressed. The oppressors were the wealthy elites with strong connections with the Americans and who would use their position and money to bribe officials and judges to further enrich themselves at the expense of ordinary Afghans.
But that is in the past. What is going to happen in Afghanistan now? Most worrying is the economy since almost 75 per cent of government income that was provided by the US is now gone. And government-owned reserves kept in American banks have been frozen by US authorities. The International Monetary Fund has also suspended funds for Afghanistan amounting to US$370 million.
The Taliban's main source of income has mostly been taxes on exports and imports, amounting to about US$1.6 billion, which is not enough to even pay 500,000 government employees' salaries.
Fifty per cent of the Afghan population live below the poverty line, with 25 per cent of workers earning less than US$2 a day. Unemployment was estimated at 12 per cent. Those dismal figures are likely to worsen.
Foreign investors, including from China, will be wary of investing in Afghanistan due to the still volatile political situation. The Afghan currency, which has depreciated since the beginning of the year, has fallen again since the Taliban took Kabul. At the end of last month, the currency depreciated from 80 to 86 Afghani against the US dollar. This fall will result in an increase in import costs and lead to severe inflation.
Whether the Taliban's grip on power can be maintained will depend on how they will be perceived by ordinary Afghans. As long as the Taliban is seen as
free from corruption and is not seen to be abusing its power to oppress women and other minority groups, its hold on power will likely last many more years.
Most Afghans are tired of war and desperate for peace. They will likely realise that many economic problems the country faced have their roots in the US occupation.
They know that these problems cannot be solved overnight. If law and order is maintained, accompanied by justice and transparency, these will be a strong foundation for the country to rebuild.
Moreover, the Taliban must not fall into the trap of foreign debts.
Afghans must rebuild their country's economy without being dependent on foreign lenders, whether public or private. Otherwise, the cycle of debt, dependencies and poverty will not end.
The writer is a professor at the
Faculty of Business and Accounting, Universiti Malaya