THE global recession expected by many seemed to turned real when the United States on July 28 announced that its second quarter gross domestic product contracted by 0.9 per cent quarter on quarter (QOQ), following the 1.6 per cent QOQ contraction in the first quarter.
This means the US experienced two successive quarterly negative growths, which in economics is the definition of a technical recession.
That means officially, the country is not in a recession but patently moving towards one.
If the US prevents another negative growth in the third quarter, then officially, the country will not experience a recession in 2022, unless the final results for the year, which can be known only in the following year, show a negative growth.
So what it takes for a recession to occur in a country is three successive quarterly negative growths, which can be avoided with the right mix of monetary and fiscal policies to stabilise the economy.
But economics is a strange discipline, or rather, economists are a strange breed of people.
Policy wonks (economists, of course) in the US Treasury and Federal Reserve are very defensive in using the word "recession".
They play down its seriousness by saying the economy is not in a recession, but that it's just "slowing down".
This is unprecedented. When it comes to economic data, the US will always call a spade a spade.
No one is actually saying the US is in a recession. Analysts say the US economy is heading towards a recession. Isn't this what a technical recession is all about?
Can't these policy wonks in the US tell the difference between an economy in a recession and an economy heading towards a recession?
Could this denial by Biden administration officials be an admission that the massive sanctions imposed on Russia are hurting the US more than they hurt Russia?
Who cares if a recession hits the US, but when the US is the world's No. 1 economic superpower, there is a lot of truth in the adage "when the US sneezes, the whole world catches a cold", which makes all of us care.
So when all of us care about the US heading towards a recession, it is baffling that the US does not reciprocate our care by denying its economy is heading towards a recession.
Is this also a subtle admission that it is no longer an economic superpower, or rather its economic superpower status is on the wane, as its sneeze won't cause a cold if it is no longer an economic superpower?
Now it looks like when the US sneezes, Russia and other countries, including Malaysia, won't get a cold because their economies are all relatively doing better than the economies of the US and the European Union.
The balance of payment data in Russia also looks excellent despite the sanctions.
Or is the US' denial an attempt to prevent international rating agencies from downgrading its economy and its sovereign rating, which will pull the plug on more investments coming to the US?
Sweeping all these scenarios under the carpet is pointless, as it will affect the US' stance that the Ukraine war must be settled on the battlefield instead of at the negotiating table.
This stance is reflected in some US politicians arguing in favour of supplying more weapons and rejecting diplomacy.
US Representative Dan Crenshaw was gloating at the opportunity of fighting Russia with Ukrainian lives when he said: "Investing in the destruction of our adversary's military without losing a single American troop strikes me as a good idea."
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken frames the proxy war in more benevolent terms by suggesting the US was arming Ukraine to ensure Kiev would be in "the strongest possible position at any negotiating table that may emerge".
Although such a position won't result in the death of a single US citizen in the war, it will nevertheless make the US a pauper nation with loads of debts and spending that the world would not want to finance.
Isn't this the familiar path great powers have to tread before falling off the pedestal?
Just take a look at the Roman or Byzantine empire, the Ottoman empire, the Chinese dynasties, the British empire and the Soviet empire.
True, these empires held sway for some time and were a force to be reckoned with, despite their pauper status, but the rot finally reached a level where it marked the beginning of the end.
The writer is editor of Let's Talk!, an e-newsletter on current affairs