Singapore's ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute has been conducting state of Southeast Asia surveys since 2019.
Last year's online poll of policymakers, researchers, businesses, civil society and the media revealed a stark difference between poor levels of trust in China and improved trust ratings for other major powers.
Despite Covid-19 bringing Southeast Asia and China closer, the percentage of respondents who feared China climbed from 51.5 per cent in 2019 to 60.4 per cent in 2020, peaking at 63 per cent in 2021.
This is against the backdrop of news that Asean will surpass the European Union in 2020 to become China's largest trading partner. This trend is expected to continue.
In fact, in 2022, the first year the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) came into effect, Chinese trade with Asean jumped 15 per cent year over year.
According to the ISEAS 2022 survey, the level of distrust has dipped slightly to 59.6 per cent, but there is no denying that a significant confidence gap exists with China.
There are, in fact, two opposing views. On the one hand, 76.3 per cent of Southeast Asians agree that China is the most important economic player in the region. On the other hand, 72.3 per cent are worried about China's expanding economic influence.
More than 51 per cent worry that China's economic and military power could threaten the interests and sovereignty of Asean members.
How is it that China is economically influential but the most mistrusted among the major powers in the following order — Japan, the EU, the United States, and India?
There are several factors, but the emergence of a Chinese dictatorship could be the most significant. President Xi Jinping's historic third term goes against the "collective leadership" reforms set in place by Deng Xiaoping in the late 1970s.
The real concern of respondents is the possibility that China, under a dictatorship, will use its growing influence and power to punish their countries' foreign policy decisions, employing economic tools and cutting off tourism flows.
This could explain why China is rated as the least trusted country in Southeast Asia. Why has it taken this long for such sentiment to be noticed?
Perhaps it is because Asean has a long tradition of having a disconnect between economic and security processes. In the three pillars of the Asean community, the political-security community is disconnected from the economic (the third pillar being socio-cultural). This is not to say that China is blameless. Its recent diplomatic approaches, part of its "wolf warrior" diplomacy, are seen as aggressive and coercive.
It has responded aggressively to the origins of Covid-19. Its South China Sea strategy is obsessed with border disputes and military displays in the Taiwan Strait. China's reputation has suffered, and it is seen less a partner than a competitor.
The Financial Times reported recently that Xi's diplomatic and economic policies are undergoing a major reset. Chinese officials and experts say that several distinct economic, social and foreign policy strains have come together and reached such critical levels as to be the driving force behind the reset.
The main economic goals are to stabilise the collapsing real estate market, resolve a financial crisis impacting many local governments, and bring back strong growth.
Furthermore, after a period during which Beijing felt the effects of its isolation, China's major diplomatic goal is to improve relations with other nations.
The survey provided crucial insights into factors that influence our region. Ultimately, the international community is not prepared to deal with an assertive and hostile China.
It's also against Beijing's interest to use its activities in the South China Sea or "debt-trap diplomacy" by including huge loans in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that could push Asean closer to the US.
RCEP is the first step in the right direction, but trade can only do so much to reduce mistrust. In the past, Asean was captivated by a long list of Chinese cooperative initiatives, financial support, especially through BRI, and the provision of vaccines.
Upholding the rule of law, advancing good governance and bolstering human rights are also necessary if Beijing wants to win over the hearts and minds of its Southeast Asian neighbours.
The writer is the public sector engagement manager at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies
The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of the New Straits Times