PRESIDENT Joe Biden is haemorrhaging support among voters without college degrees — a large group that includes Black people, Hispanic women, young voters and suburban women — producing a far tighter rematch against his Republican predecessor Donald Trump than seen in 2020, Reuters/Ipsos polling reveals.
Biden's support among voters without a four-year degree is down 10 percentage points, compared with this point in the 2020 campaign, the analysis of around 24,000 registered voter responses to Reuters/Ipsos polls in 2020 and 2024 shows.
Americans without college degrees made up three out of five voters in 2020.
Those declines have helped set the stage for what national opinion polls show is a tied race between Biden and Trump.
The polling was completed before a New York jury on Thursday found Trump guilty of trying to cover a hush-money payment to a porn star.
A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Friday found that one in 10 Republican registered voters were less likely to cast ballots for Trump following that verdict, a number that could make a difference in a close race.
That poll also showed Biden with a two percentage point lead, far below the six point lead he held at this point in 2020.
The few bright spots for Biden remain voters with college degrees or households earning more than US$100,000 a year, the analysis found.
Reuters looked at the responses of more than 8,000 registered voters in Reuters/Ipsos polls in March through May 2024 and over 16,000 in the same period in 2020.
The analysis found that voters who have grown disenchanted with Biden aren't moving en masse to Trump.
Instead, many seem to be throwing their hands up, frustrated with their choices and uncertain what they will do in the Nov 5 election.
Mary Jo McConnell, 67, of Elba, New York, has soured on both parties after she backed Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
"They are not providing candidates that I feel are capable of tackling the challenges that we are facing."
McConnell and her husband rely on Social Security benefits.
A graduate of a two-year college, she has worked in a cannery and a salt mine.
In retirement, she took a pair of part-time jobs to earn extra money as prices spiked.
McConnell said she plans to vote in November, but hasn't made up her mind who she'll pick.
In response to Reuters' analysis, the Biden campaign said that national polls provide an incomplete picture of the race.
"Oftentimes national polls obscure the progress that any campaign is making," said Matt Barreto, a pollster for the Biden campaign.
A May Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Biden's approval rating falling to the lowest level of his presidency at 36 per cent with just over five months to go to the election.
Worries about the economy have some past Biden voters saying they are ready to at least consider voting for Trump.
Julio Miranda, 47, of Canoga Park, California, said his household expenses have ballooned during Biden's term in office.
Inflation has been a persistent challenge for Biden and while it is off its 2022 peak, grocery prices are up more than 20 per cent since he took office, according to US Labour Department estimates.
High interest rates have made purchases like cars and homes substantially more expensive.
"Forget about me buying a house," said Miranda, who is of Mexican descent and is not a college graduate.
Miranda considered Biden's Democrats out of touch, adding, "They're not looking out for middle-class people".
Chris Wells, 47, the owner of a gym in Charleston, South Carolina, voted for Biden in 2020 but now is concerned about the 81-year-old president's age and physical health.
Wells said he won't vote for Trump, 77, but that doesn't mean he'll cast a ballot for Biden either, amid concerns over the economy.
Biden won the 2020 election by some seven million votes nationally, but the state-by-state Electoral College system means that US presidential elections can be won and lost in seven highly competitive swing states, including Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, which Biden carried by paper-thin margins.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent and has received double-digit support in many polls, also complicates the matter.
The writers are from Reuters