THE far-right favourites to win Austria's next election have forged an alliance with Hungarian leader Viktor Orban that could deepen defiance of Brussels and threaten already fragile consensus over the Ukraine war if they take power.
Orban, prime minister of Austria's old imperial partner and an ally of US presidential candidate Donald Trump, has often blocked or delayed major European Union decisions such as sanctions against Russia and aid for Ukraine, wringing concessions from the bloc in the process.
While other hardline nationalists now heading European governments have taken a more moderate path, Austrian Freedom Party (FPO) leader Herbert Kickl has aligned his party closely with Orban, the self-styled champion of "illiberal democracy".
"We're entering what I would like to call a new era in European politics," Kickl said with Orban announcing their European alliance in June in a Vienna hotel alongside Andrej Babis, head of the biggest party in the Czech Republic's lower house, and a former prime minister of that country.
Other parties including Marine Le Pen's National Rally in France joined that alliance within days, making it the third-biggest political group in the European Parliament.
An FPO-led government would exacerbate difficulties Europe has staying united to supply weapons and aid to Kyiv and opposing gambits like Orban's trip to Moscow last month, which upset EU officials.
Kickl, who has called European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen a "warmonger", said last month he and Orban backed a "peaceful solution to the war between Ukraine and Russia" and pointed to Pope Francis' remark that Kyiv should have the "courage of the white flag" to negotiate peace.
The Vatican later said that Russia halting its aggression should be a precondition for any negotiations.
But pressure on Ukraine to come to terms with Russia is also emanating from Slovakia, which like the Czech Republic was also once part of the Austro-Hungarian empire that dominated central Europe before the First World War.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico pursues friendly ties with Moscow, has ended military aid for Ukraine and opposes Kyiv joining NATO. However, he has not joined the alliance forged by Kickl and Orban, who Austria's far-right has long been courting.
Originating on the political left, Fico has said his party will stay out of the main centre-left group in the European Parliament after its suspension in October for forming a coalition with a far-right party in Slovakia.
Neutral Austria does not send arms to Ukraine, and lingering business ties between one of its biggest banks and Russia have alarmed Washington. It still imports most of its natural gas from Russia despite efforts to kick that habit.
The EU has agreed 14 rounds of sanctions since Russia's invasion, and in February passed a 50 billion euro (US$54 billion) aid package for Ukraine until 2027.
The frequent threat of a Hungarian veto has forced the 27-member bloc to get creative and resort to unorthodox tactics.
At a December summit, Orban was asked to leave the room so EU leaders could agree to open membership talks with Kyiv.
"I do think it will be increasingly difficult to adopt further sanctions," said Paul Schmidt, head of think-tank the Austrian Society for European Politics. "If there's an FPO government, then it won't just be Orban alone. And then Austria will be one of the potential countries to veto."
Like European peers, the FPO combines tough rhetoric on immigration and Islam with promises to reduce what it regards as interference from Brussels in national affairs.
Top party officials declined or did not respond to interview requests for this article. "As an Austrian party, we focus exclusively on domestic media and agencies in our communications work," an FPO spokesperson said.
Hungary's government did not respond to a request for comment. A European Council spokesperson said it would not speculate on the election's outcome but would work with whomever Austria elected. The Commission declined to comment.
Like Orban, who says Trump plans to quickly negotiate peace in Ukraine if he is re-elected in November, the FPO criticises EU support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.
Polls have long shown the FPO in first place ahead of Chancellor Karl Nehammer's conservative People's Party (OVP). But even if it wins September's general election it faces serious obstacles to leading government for the first time.
Currently polling around 27 per cent, the FPO would need a coalition partner to govern. Its only realistic option is the OVP, but Nehammer has ruled out working with Kickl - though not the FPO.
President Alexander Van der Bellen, an ex-leader of Austria's Greens eager to uphold EU unity on Ukraine, has hinted he might withhold his consent to Kickl becoming chancellor.
Kickl's adversaries accuse the FPO, which in 2016 signed a cooperation agreement with President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party, of doing Moscow's bidding.
The FPO says it is the only party serious about Austrian neutrality, enshrined in the constitution, which it uses to attack policies targeting Russia, such as a planned missile defence system that would stretch from Britain to Turkey.
Many Austrians hold the view that not provoking major powers like Russia keeps them safe, and polls show a clear majority of voters want the country to stay neutral.
Kickl is therefore generally careful to argue his Ukraine policy is about threats to Austrian neutrality, rather than directly praising Putin, said political analyst Thomas Hofer.
"The explanation is a strongly domestic one."
* The writer is from Reuters