AFTER weeks of intensive diplomacy aimed at securing a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah, the United States has settled on an altogether different approach: let the unfolding conflict in Lebanon play out.
Just two weeks ago, the US and France were demanding an immediate 21-day ceasefire to ward off an Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
That effort was derailed by Israel's assassination of Hizbollah leader Syed Hassan Nasrallah, the Oct 1 launch of Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon and Israeli airstrikes that have wiped out much of the group's leadership.
Now, US officials have dropped their calls for a ceasefire, arguing that circumstances have changed.
"We do support Israel launching these incursions to degrade Hizbollah's infrastructure so ultimately we can get a diplomatic resolution," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told a press briefing last week.
The course change reflects conflicting US goals: containing the ever-growing Middle East conflict while also severely weakening Iran-backed Hizbollah.
The new approach is both practical and risky.
The US and Israel would benefit from the defeat of Hizbollah but encouraging Israel's widening military campaign risks a conflict that spins out of control.
Jon Alterman, a former State Department official, said the US wants to see Hizbollah weakened but must weigh that against the risk of "creating a vacuum" in Lebanon or provoking a regional war.
Washington's approach seems to be: "If you can't change the Israeli approach, you might as well try to channel it in a constructive way."
Israel's latest fight with Hizbollah started when the group fired missiles at Israeli positions immediately after the Oct 7, 2023, attack by Hamas.
Hizbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire ever since.
As months of indirect ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas went nowhere, Israel in September began ramping up its bombardment of Hizbollah and landed painful blows on the group, including remotely detonating Hizbollah pagers and radios, wounding thousands of the group's members.
After Nasrallah's death, US President Joe Biden called again for a ceasefire.
Israel launched its ground invasion anyway and within a few days, the US had dropped its calls for a ceasefire and expressed support for its ally's campaign.
Aaron David Miller, a former US Middle East negotiator, said Washington had little hope of restraining Israel and saw potential benefits in the operation.
"It certainly created momentum in which the administration probably thought, 'Let's make a virtue out of necessity'."
He added that US officials were also likely reserving leverage to try and curtail Israel's retaliation for a ballistic missile attack that Teheran carried out two weeks ago.
Today, no meaningful ceasefire talks are underway, said European sources familiar with the matter, adding that Israelis would press ahead with their operation in Lebanon "for weeks if not months".
Two US officials said that might well be the timeline. For the US, the Israeli campaign could bring at least two benefits.
First, weakening Hizbollah — Iran's most powerful proxy militia — could curb Teheran's influence in the region and lower the threat to Israel and to US forces.
Washington also believes that military pressure could force Hizbollah to put down arms and pave the way for the election of a new government in Lebanon that would oust the powerful militia movement, which has been a significant player in Lebanon for decades.
Jonathan Lord, a former Pentagon official now with the Center for a New American Security in Washington, said that would be hard to achieve.
"On the one hand, many Lebanese people bristle under the weight of Hizbollah's presence in Lebanon. But at the same time... this change is being foisted on Lebanon through a very violent campaign."
The ultimate goal, US officials said last week, is to enforce United Nations Security Council resolution 1701, which mandated a UN peacekeeping mission, known as Unifil, to help the Lebanese army keep its southern border area with Israel free of weapons or armed personnel other than those of the Lebanese state.
Beyond the chance of a war that could draw in the US, there is the fear that Lebanon becomes another Gaza. A year of Israeli military operations has reduced the enclave to a wasteland and killed nearly 42,000 people, according to Gaza health officials.
The writers are from Reuters