A FRAGILE ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese group Hizbollah has held up for over a month, even as its terms seem unlikely to be met by the agreed-upon deadline.
The deal struck on Nov 27 to halt the war required Hizbollah to immediately lay down its arms in southern Lebanon and gave Israel 60 days to withdraw its forces there and hand over control to the Lebanese army and United Nations peacekeepers.
So far, Israel has withdrawn from just two of the dozens of towns it holds in southern Lebanon. And it has continued striking what it says are bases belonging to Hizbollah.
Hizbollah, which was severely diminished during nearly 14 months of war, has threatened to resume fighting if Israel does not fully withdraw its forces by the 60-day deadline.
Yet despite accusations from both sides about hundreds of ceasefire violations, the truce is likely to hold, analysts say. That is good news for thousands of Israeli and Lebanese families displaced by the war still waiting to return home.
"The ceasefire agreement is rather opaque and open to interpretation," said Firas Maksad, a senior fellow with the Middle East Institute in Washington. That flexibility, he said, may give it a better chance of holding in the face of changing circumstances, including the ouster of Syria's long-time leader, Bashar al-Assad, just days after the ceasefire took effect.
With Assad gone, Hizbollah lost a vital route for smuggling weapons from Iran. While that further weakened Hizbollah's hand, Israel had already agreed to the United States-brokered ceasefire.
Here's a look at the terms of the ceasefire and its prospects for ending hostilities over the long-term.
WHAT DOES THE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT SAY?
The agreement says that both Hizbollah and Israel will halt "offensive" military actions, but that they can act in self-defence, although it is not entirely clear how that term may be interpreted.
The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing Hizbollah and other groups from launching attacks into Israel. It is also required to dismantle Hizbollah facilities and weapons in southern Lebanon.
The US, France, Israel, Lebanon and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, are responsible for overseeing implementation of the agreement.
"The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented," Maksad said.
IS THE CEASEFIRE BEING
IMPLEMENTED?
Hizbollah has for the most part halted its rocket and drone fire into Israel, and Israel has stopped attacking Hizbollah in most areas of Lebanon. But Israel has launched regular airstrikes on what it says are militant sites in southern Lebanon and in the Bekaa Valley.
Lebanon has accused Israel of repeatedly violating the ceasefire agreement and last week submitted a complaint to the UN Security Council that says Israel launched some 816 "ground and air attacks" between the start of the ceasefire and Dec 22 last year.
The complaint said the attacks had hindered the Lebanese army's efforts to deploy in the south and uphold its end of the ceasefire agreement.
Israel says Hizbollah has violated the ceasefire hundreds of times and has also complained to the Security Council. It accused Hizbollah fighters of moving ammunition, attempting to attack Israeli soldiers, and preparing and launching rockets towards northern Israel, among other things.
WHAT HAPPENS AFTER 60-DAY DEADLINE?
Israel's withdrawal from Lebanese towns has been slower than anticipated because of a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over, according to Lieutenant-Colonel Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman. Lebanon disputes this, and says it is waiting for Israel to withdraw before entering the towns.
Israel does not consider the 60-day timetable for withdrawal to be "sacred", said Harel Chorev, an expert on Israel-Lebanon relations at Tel Aviv University who estimates that Lebanon will need to recruit and deploy thousands more troops before Israel will be ready to hand over control.
While Hizbollah may not be in a position to return to open war with Israel, it or other groups could mount guerilla attacks using light weaponry if Israeli troops remain in southern Lebanon, said former Lebanese army General Hassan Jouni.
And even if Israel does withdraw all of its ground forces, Jouni said, the Israeli military could continue to carry out sporadic airstrikes in Lebanon, much as it has done in Syria for years.
The writers are from AP