It is two weeks now since Asean held its special summit with Myanmar's army chief Min Aung Hlaing in Jakarta, during which the regional body called for immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar and for all parties to "exercise restraint". We interpret "immediate" to mean now.
Sadly, violence is still continuing. As late as Tuesday, five people were killed when a parcel bomb exploded, including an ousted lawmaker and three police officers who quit to join the protesters, according to Reuters. Despite Asean's best efforts, Min Aung Hlaing remains recalcitrant.
A new approach may be needed. Asean may have to engage China to end the violence before Myanmar spirals into a full-fledged civil war. Already there are signs that a civil war has begun. There may be a need to work with the United Nations (UN), too.
On Friday, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) called on Myanmar to promptly implement the Asean Plan, the five-point plan issued in Jakarta on April 24. In addition to the cessation of violence, the plan calls for constructive dialogue between all the parties, the appointment of a special envoy to get the dialogue going and the provision of humanitarian assistance.
The UNSC statement, the fourth since the coup on Feb 1, calls on Myanmar to facilitate, as soon as possible, the visit there of its special envoy to Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener. A Voice of America report says Myanmar has turned down her request. Perhaps Min Aung Hlaing wasn't pleased with UNSC's press statement of Feb 4 that "expressed great concern" and called for "a democratic transition in Myanmar".
China must help in resolving the crisis in Myanmar. After all, it is its northern neighbour. Also, China has more than a neighbourly interest in bringing an end to the crisis there.
Before Aung San Suu Kyi was imprisoned by Min Aung Hlaing, China is reported to have had one of the best years of bilateral relationship. During her reign, China's commerce also grew by leaps and bounds.
Today, China is a leading investor in Myanmar. But its presence in Myanmar isn't as old as Suu Kyi's reign. China has been there for 30 years, some really good and some not good at all. Be that as it may, China has had some good years during Suu Kyi's years. Logic tells us that China will be interested in seeing Suu Kyi and other ousted lawmakers released.
Though recent media reports say that China is reluctant to condemn the military regime as exemplified by Friday's UNSC statement, China did agree to the rather strong language of the Feb 4 UNSC statement. What's more, the UNSC "reiterated the need to address the root causes of the crisis in Rakhine State and to create conditions necessary for the safe, voluntary, sustainable and dignified return of displaced persons".
This is a condemnation of sorts. China too will realise that the Min Aung Hlaing-induced crisis is making it difficult for its flagship Belt and Road Initiative to be a success. As The Conversation, a nonprofit website published by academics, says: "An internationally isolated Myanmar would put a spoke in the wheel of the central idea of the BRI — connectivity." Like Asean, China too needs a stable Myanmar. Asean must engage China before it engages Myanmar. If not for anything, both wouldn't want a trigger-happy general to be a neighbour.