Yesterday Myanmar's military coup turned 100 days and yet the country's democracy is still behind bars. Asean by now must have realised that its hard words and five-point plan of April 24 weren't enough to get General Ming Aung Hlaing and his men in fatigues back to the barracks.
On May 3, eight days after pretending to hear out Asean's peace initiative, he ordered his men to open fire into a crowd of protesters killing eight people, a Reuters report quoted local media as saying. Asean shouldn't be surprised for two reasons.
One, Ming Aung Hlaing may have gone to Jakarta to just appease his friends in Asean and reduce the volume of the noises coming from critical others. His statement to foreign media days later quoted by the Bangkok Post that he would heed the regional body's "suggestion" only when "the situation returns to stability" proves this. Meanwhile, the general and his men are doing everything to make sure Myanmar doesn't return to "stability".
Two, in all 73 years of its history, the Myanmar army has been waging war against its own people. It has had no foreign enemies, writes Ashok K. Mehta, a retired major-general of the Indian army, in The Pioneer, an Indian news portal. He is right. One day it is the Kachins, and on another, the Chins, the Shans and the Rohingya. Now it is the turn of the Bamar, who make up 80 per cent of the population.
Sanctions by the United States and European Union aren't working. So haven't Asean's peace efforts. On the contrary, Asean has earned some bad bromides from a spectrum of the protesters for inviting Ming Aung Hlaing for a chat in Jakarta, noble though its aim was. Others are angry with Asean for not expelling Myanmar.
Myanmar is certainly a liability in Asean's balance sheet. It has been for sometime now. While Asean mulls expulsion, something more is needed. And the "something more" must come from China and Russia, two of the five-member United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the law-making body of the United Nations.
Start with China. Beijing, whether it likes it or not, is not earning any brownie points for being seen to be on the side of the junta. Perception matters in geopolitics as it does in politics. The international community sees the junta as a murderous regime, and anyone seen to be on its side will be painted with the same brush.
There is a greater danger in China being perceived to be backing the junta: Ming Aung Hlaing will read this as China's green light for the coup. Beijing must ensure that this reading isn't possible. China is on record as saying sanctions are counterproductive. But what isn't? China must share this with Asean.
The violence that the coup has unleashed isn't just a national issue. It is regional and international, too. Like the Rohingya crisis, the violent coup is causing people to flee into neighbouring countries. Besides, when neighbours cry for help, it will be unconscionable to not go to their aid.
Like China, Russia can't just stop at saying this or that action by the UNSC or others is counterproductive. It must come up with measures that will end the coup and violence. The place of elected lawmakers is not behind bars. It is in Parliament. China and Russia must help them get there.