KUALA LUMPUR: Moody's Investor Service expects that the credit trend for non-financial companies in Asia Pacific will remain stable in 2023.
But slowing global economic growth, persistently elevated inflation resulting in continued aggressive interest rate hikes, prolonged tight monetary policy, and geopolitical shifts pose downside risks to the stable trend.
Moody's senior vice president and group credit officer Clara Lau said that although commodity prices are normalising as supply chain problems ease, high energy and food prices remain core economic challenges for most countries.
"Meanwhile, interest rates will continue rising in the coming quarters as inflation stays above most central banks' targets before slowing in the latter part of the year," she said in a statement.
Moody's expects global economic growth to slow further to 0.2 per cent for G-20 advanced economies and 3.1 per cent for G-20 emerging economies in 2023 and has forecast real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the US and China to slow to 0.4 per cent and 4.0 per cent, respectively.
"Inflation and interest rates in the US will likely remain elevated for a while, and in China, a slow manufacturing and domestic consumption rebound, along with property sector weakness and export demand decline, will hinder its recovery," it said.
The share of ratings with a stable outlook in Moody's APAC corporate portfolio stood at 83 per cent at the end of 2022, while the share of ratings with negative implications was 13 per cent.
"Negative rating actions outpaced positive ones in 2022, with 136 negative actions compared with 44 positive actions.
"About 41 per cent of the negative rating actions were taken on Chinese property developers, reflecting pressures from the tight funding environment, slowing economic growth and project incompletion risks.
"Ratings on all gaming issuers and 55 per cent of property issuers have negative implications, but the Chinese government's recent relaxation of Covid policies and enhanced measures to improve funding accessibility for some property developers will alleviate pressure on the sectors," it added.