KUALA LUMPUR: The global tourism sector is expected to make a big leap this year as China reopens its borders and eases domestic restrictions sooner than expected since January 8, 2023.
According to UOB Global Economics & Market Research, the ongoing travel recovery in Asia and the Pacific, alongside China's reopening this year, is deemed a key catalyst to revive global tourism and the economic outlook in 2023.
"The World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) projects that international tourist arrivals could reach 80-95 per cent of pre-pandemic levels in 2023 (from 63 per cent in 2022) despite lingering global headwinds," it said.
UOB Research said more than 32 million Chinese travellers visited Southeast Asia before the pandemic, mainly Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Laos.
The research firm said stronger tourism activity is expected to boost Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) by at least 1.0 percentage points (ppt), which further supports its baseline GDP growth forecast of 4.0 per cent for 2023.
"The uplift will come through further recovery in tourist arrivals, resumption of China outbound travelling, and sustained domestic tourism demand," it said.
However, UOB said the key risks to Malaysia's tourism outlook include a weaker global outlook, a slower China recovery and return of Chinese tourists, capacity constraints, and inflation risks.
One challenge is balancing the impact on inflation as China's reopening and surge in demand may put upward pressure on energy prices and other related goods and services, it said.
"We estimated the potential effect of higher tourism demand on Malaysia's inflation.
"To mitigate these downside risks and sustain the tourism recovery, it will require the consistent and stable reopening of countries and borders, with minimal quarantine restrictions and requirements.
"This will also require affordable travel, improved travel connectivity, visa facilitation, processing of passports, technology improvements and e-payment facilities, and better safety and security," it added.