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Geography is destiny - Choke Points That Can Upend Global Trade 

Red Sea

"Geography is destiny" is a phrase that resonates deeply in the context of global trade and geopolitics, especially when we consider the strategic importance of the Suez Canal.

This man-made marvel, slicing through Egypt, serves as a crucial artery for international maritime shipping routes, drastically reducing travel time between Europe and Asia. Instead of navigating the treacherous Cape of Good Hope, ships can cut their journey by thousands of miles, significantly lowering transportation costs, freight expenses, and insurance premiums.

The geoeconomic implications are profound. The canal's efficiency fuels global trade, making it a linchpin of the world economy. Yet, this vital chokepoint is also a hotspot for geopolitical maneuvering.

Countries like Djibouti, strategically located near the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea, become invaluable.

Here, major powers like the U.S., China, and France maintain military bases, highlighting the region's geostrategic significance.

Enter the Houthis, a rebel group in Yemen, whose activities threaten this delicate balance. Yemen's descent into chaos exemplifies a failed state – a nation unable to maintain order, govern effectively, or provide basic services, becoming a breeding ground for conflict and instability.

The Houthis' control over parts of Yemen, including areas near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, poses a direct threat to one of the world's most critical maritime routes. The strait, along with the Suez Canal, forms a lifeline for oil shipments from the Middle East to Europe and beyond.

Adding to the complexity is the US-China rivalry, a modern-day Great Game played out on the high seas. Both nations vie for influence over these strategic waterways. Freedom of Navigation operations, primarily conducted by the U.S., aim to ensure that these international waters remain open and free from coercion.

China's expanding naval presence and its Belt and Road Initiative, which includes significant investments in ports and infrastructure in the region, are seen as direct challenges to this principle.

The Red Sea itself is not immune to threats. Piracy, particularly off the coast of Somalia, has been a persistent menace, disrupting shipping lanes and driving up costs through increased security measures and higher insurance rates.

The narrow Bab al-Mandab Strait is a bottleneck where such risks are amplified, making international cooperation and naval presence essential to safeguard these routes. In response, operations like "Restore Prosperity" have been launched to stabilise the region, combat piracy, and ensure the uninterrupted flow of commerce.

In this interconnected web of geopolitics and geoeconomics, geography truly is destiny. The Suez Canal's existence transforms global trade patterns, but its significance also makes it a focal point of geopolitical strategy.

Ensuring its security, along with the surrounding maritime routes, is a constant balancing act involving diplomacy, military presence, and international collaboration. The stakes are high, and the ripple effects of instability in this region are felt across the globe, underscoring the timeless truth that geography often dictates the fate of nations.

Strait of Hormuz

Once again, the phrase "Geography is destiny," perfectly captures the strategic essence of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints.

This narrow passage, through which a significant portion of the world's oil supply flows, is not just a route but a lifeline of the global economy. Its importance to international maritime shipping routes cannot be overstated, as any disruption here would send oil prices skyrocketing, inflating transportation, freight, and insurance costs across the board.

The geopolitical landscape surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is a volatile mix of power plays and strategic interests. Iran, with its strategic position along the strait, wields considerable influence, often using the threat of closure as a geopolitical lever. Groups allied with Iran, like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas, add layers of regional tension.

Though the Houthis, entrenched in Yemen - a quintessential failed state unable to maintain governance or stability - do not pose direct threats to this vital maritime route.

Nevertheless, Hezbollah and Hamas amplify the broader regional instability. The strait's importance is further underscored by the persistent US-Iranian tensions. The downing of an Iranian airliner by the US Navy has only added to the historical litany of hostilities, which includes the protracted Iran-Iraq war over strategic waterways like the Shatt Al Arab.

The U.S. aim to counterbalance Iranian threats, ensuring these waters remain open for global trade. The American Navy's presence in Bahrain and Qatar is a testament to the strategic necessity of maintaining stability in the Persian Gulf.

Oman, perched at the entrance to the strait, plays a crucial stabilizing role, often acting as a mediator in regional conflicts. Meanwhile, the Saudi-Iranian rivalry, a reflection of the Sunni-Arab, Shiite-Arab and Shiite-Parsi divide, exacerbates the geopolitical dynamics. Saudi Arabia's interest in securing its oil exports through the strait adds another layer of complexity.

Geostrategically, the potential for American Navy involvement remains high, given the strait's global significance. Any conflict here could escalate quickly,

impacting not just regional actors but the global economy. The strait is a critical artery, and its security is paramount, underscoring the broader theme that in geopolitics, geography truly is destiny.

The U.S. military presence in the region not only underscores its commitment to safeguarding these vital waterways but also serves as a bulwark against potential aggression, ensuring that the

geopolitical chessboard remains balanced in favor of stability and continued economic prosperity.

Choke Points That Can Upend Global Trade

In the final analysis, the American Military's presence in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE is a testament to the strategic necessity of maintaining stability in the Persian Gulf. These bases enable the U.S. to project power, deter aggression, and ensure the free flow of commerce through the strait.

Bahrain, is home to the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, serves as a central hub for maritime operations in the Persian Gulf. Qatar hosts the Al Udeid Air Base, a crucial center for air operations and logistics.

Kuwait provides significant logistical support and staging areas for U.S. forces, while the UAE offers strategic ports and airbases that facilitate rapid deployment and sustainment of military operations.

Djibouti, strategically located near the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, plays a similar pivotal role. The Red Sea itself is a vital maritime corridor, linking the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal to the Indian Ocean.

The Suez Canal is another crucial chokepoint, dramatically reducing travel time between Europe and Asia and significantly lowering transportation costs.

Djibouti hosts multiple foreign military bases, including a critical U.S. base, underscoring its strategic importance in safeguarding these routes.

*The writer is an international relations analyst and a senior consultant with Global Asia Consulting. He has a background as a senior researcher at the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research. The viewpoints articulated are solely those of the author.

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